Coastal wetlands play an important role in the global water and biogeochemical cycles. Climate change is making them more difficult to adapt to the fluctuation of sea levels and other environment changes. Given the importance of eco-geomorphological processes for coastal wetland resilience, many eco-geomorphology models differing in complexity and numerical schemes have been developed in recent decades. But their divergent estimates on the response of coastal wetlands to climate change indicate that substantial structural uncertainties exist in these models. To investigate the structural uncertainty of coastal wetland eco-geomorphology models, we developed a multi-algorithm model framework of eco-geomorphological processes, such as mineral accretion and organic matter accretion, within a single hydrodynamics model. The framework is designed to explore possible ways to represent coastal wetland eco-geomorphology in Earth system models and reduce the related uncertainties in global applications. We tested this model framework at three representative coastal wetland sites: two saltmarsh wetland (Venice Lagoon and Plum Island Estuary) and a mangrove wetland (Hunter Estuary). Through the model-data comparison, we showed the importance to use a multi-algorithm ensemble approach for more robust predictions of the evolution of coastal wetlands. We also find that more observations of mineral and organic matter accretion at different elevations of coastal wetlands and evaluation of the coastal wetland models at different sites of diverse environments can help reduce the model uncertainty.

Estimates of global carbon stocks in coastal wetlands reveal that these are some of the most efficient carbon-sequestering environments in the world, which has prompted a renewed interest in conservation and restoration programs as an opportunity for greenhouse gas abatement. Accumulation of carbon in coastal wetlands is linked to diverse factors such as the type of vegetation, geomorphic setting, and sediment supply. Feedbacks between these factors and the tidal flow conditions drive the dynamics of carbon accumulation rates. Climate change-induced sea-level rise has been shown to increase the vulnerability to submergence of saltmarsh and mangroves in coastal wetlands, even if accommodation and landward colonization are possible. These potential losses of wetland vegetation combined with the reduced productivity of newly colonized areas will directly affect the capacity of the wetlands to sequester carbon from sediments and root growth. Here, we implement an eco-geomorphic model to simulate vegetation dynamics, soil carbon accumulation, and changes in soil carbon stock for a restored mangrove-saltmarsh wetland experiencing accelerated sea-level rise. We evaluate model outcomes for existing conditions and two different management scenarios aimed at mitigating sea-level rise effects and conserve wetland vegetation. Even though some management measures can result in partial conservation of wetland vegetation, they do not necessarily result in the best option for soil carbon capture. Our results suggest that accelerated sea-level can trigger accelerated wetland colonization resulting in wetland areas with limited opportunities for soil carbon capture from sediment and root mineralization, an issue that has not been considered in previous studies.