Marine cloud brightening (MCB) is the idea that the amount of solar radiation reflected by low clouds might be deliberately increased by augmenting the existing population of aerosol particles with salt particles created from seawater. MCB has been suggested as one of the potentially feasible climate intervention approaches to counteract anthropogenic global warming. Global and process modeling studies have been conducted to assess various aspects of MCB, but many questions remain. Observations evaluating the brightening of clouds using pollution from commercial shipping serve as a useful tool for evaluating potential for brightening, as do studies using detailed microphysical models and large eddy simulations. In this presentation, these different pieces of knowledge will be synthesized using the framework of a simple heuristic model, which aims to estimate bounds on the global radiative forcing possible from MCB given assumptions regarding: (a) the quantity, size, and lifetime of salt particles injected from each vessel; (b) the number of vessels deployed; (c) the relationship between cloud droplet concentration and the aerosol size distribution; (d) the albedo susceptibility of clouds; (e) the strength of the cloud liquid water adjustments to aerosol. This presentation will use the heuristic model to explore questions such as: How much salt mass must be sprayed to achieve a certain forcing, what is the optimal size for the injected particles, and how many ships are really needed to achieve significant cooling?

Calvin Howes

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The southeast Atlantic Ocean provides an excellent natural laboratory to study smoke-cloud interactions, a large driver of uncertainty in climate projections. The value of studying this in particular region is largely attributable to two factors---the expansive, bright, semi-permanent stratocumulus cloud deck and the fact that southern Africa is the largest source of biomass-burning aerosols in the world. We study this region using the WRF-Chem model with CAM5 aerosols and in situ observations from the ORACLES, LASIC, and CLARIFY field campaigns, all of which overlapped in August 2017. Across these campaigns, we compare aerosol, cloud, and thermodynamic variables to quantify model performance and expand upon observational findings of aerosol-cloud effects. Specifically, our approach is to analyze aerosol and cloud properties along flight tracks, picking out uniform legs within tropospheric smoke plumes and in the boundary layer. This unique approach allows us to sample the high spatiotemporal variability that can get lost to large-scale averaging. It also allows process-level comparison of local cloud responses to aerosol conditions, and measure model performance in those same processes. Along with better quantifying model predictive power, we find and justify updates to model parameters and processes to better emulate observations, notably aerosol size parameters. Preliminary results suggest that WRF-CAM5 is activating a smaller percentage of aerosols into cloud droplets than shown in observations, which could lead to biased modeling of aerosol indirect radiative effects on a larger scale. We explore this effect further with CCN activation tendency, updraft, particle sizing, and composition analysis, as well as broader dynamics like entrainment and removal rates. Comparing the model with similar instrument suites across multiple colocated campaigns also allows us to quantify instrument uncertainty in ways that a focus on a single campaign cannot and gives further context to the model performance.