Because climate change is both a physical and social phenomenon, personal experience has been considered the first step to entail how individuals perceive climate change risk and which actions can be promoted to reduce their vulnerability. Considering that agriculture is affected by climate change in several ways, farmers can provide first-hand observations of climate change impacts and suggest better adaptation options. However, modeling farmers’ behavior is a non-trivial task: personal experience is well recognized as a complex non-linear, multi-variate process due to the high heterogeneity and uncertainties in human cognition and decision-making processes. Furthermore, individual understandings of climate change are always contextualized within broader considerations, meaning that farmers are not ‘blank slates’ receiving information about climate change, but that information is always and inevitably filtered through values and worldviews. Despite the burgeoning of research on climate change, information about farmers’ awareness and risk perception is not geographically homogenized and varies substantially among countries and regions. For example, studies from Global North regions are scarce and emphasize how farmers characterize themselves rather than how they perceive and react to climate change. Drawing on farmers’ surveys in the Lombardy region (Italy), we provide an empirical study to pre-test the triple-loop analysis of farmers’ behavior regarding climate change: awareness, perceived impacts, and adaptation measures and barriers. Applying descriptive statistics and considering socio-economic data and farm characteristics, we address two main research questions: 1) What are farmers’ perceptions of climatic impacts and which responses do they promote? 2) How do personal experience and attitude change is conditioning farmers’ adaptation capacity? Obtained results from accurate bottom-up knowledge on farmers’ behavior may increase policy-makers’ and managers’ understanding of climate change and re-think local policies, which is essential to address agricultural risks in climate change hotspots.

Climate change is both a physical and social phenomenon in which individual understandings are contextualized within broader considerations: individuals are not ‘blank slates’ receiving information about climate change, but that information is always and inevitably filtered through values and worldviews. Personal experience, local knowledge, and social-learning influence climate risk perception and vary substantially among countries and regions. Likewise, they differently affect individuals and social groups at the regional and local scale, among whom exposures, attitudes, and capacities to manage risks vary greatly. A climate storyline approach is hence well-suited to study human observations, compound climate risks, and inform and conceptualize human–water systems interactions. Narrative storylines are used as input drivers to climate models, to represent different development pathways, which are usually characterized and applied at national and sub-national scales. Storylines aim to provide new social scenarios that address local human cognition uncertainties and improve human behavior modelling and robustness when addressing decision-making processes. Climate risks and hazards understanding can be communicated by presenting the experiences or a sequence of events, facts, and observations that are plausible and potentially critical for the system under study. Methods guiding storytelling are usually focused on conducting interviews with stakeholders, carrying out collective workshops, developing appropriate focal questions, and iterating between model results and key stakeholders. Therefore, can other data collection tools be used to reduce uncertainty in physical aspects of climate change from individuals’ local experience and perception? This contribution presents a triple-loop survey to detail the core elements of farmers’ perception and behavior when addressing climate change risk. We collect first-hand observations from northern Italian farmers about how climate change affects their activity and how extreme events are conditioning their adaptation capacity. Emphasis is placed on understanding the driving factors (risk awareness, perceived impacts, and adaptation measures and barriers) involved in the physically self-consistent past events and the plausibility of those factors. Moreover, we want to test if these factors can provide relevant implications for appropriately modelling storylines in decision-making processes. Tentative results can be useful to discuss the methodological framework of storylines building and narratives modelling, and at which point surveys can be an alternative and complementary way of dealing with deep uncertainty within climate risk management and social scenarios modelling.

Climate change tends to be addressed by accurate statistics and modelling, but it is generally perceived abstractly, being considered a distant psychological risk in which impacts and effects are spatially and temporally differentiated. In other words, people’s attitude towards climate change is that it will impact other individuals and communities that are geographically, temporally, and even generationally removed from themselves. However, due to the hybrid nature of climate change as both a physical and social phenomenon, individuals are not ‘blank slates’ receiving information and facing climate change. Many have argued that deepening personal experience could be the first step for reducing individual and community psychological distance of climate change while increasing the potential for behavior change. Considering that agriculture affects and is affected by climate change in several ways, farmers can provide first-hand observations of climate change impacts and testing different adaptation options. This contribution provides an overview of the intellectual structure of farmers’ behavior on climate change awareness, perceived risks, and adaptation capacity. A portfolio of 108 survey studies published in the last decade was selected for a comprehensive analysis. Exploratory variables such as farmers’ socio-demographic characteristics, level of climate change awareness, major perceived impacts, and adaptation measures, parameters, and barriers have been reported. In addition to the bibliographic analysis, the first results from a survey conducted in different irrigation systems in northern Italy will be tested to identify(dis)similar trends in farmers’ behavior. The identification of not only farmers’ behavior gaps but also their causing reasons will contribute to focus attention on most concerning issues and provide more accurate bottom-up knowledge to managers and decision-makers.