Toshitaka Baba

and 6 more

The giant 2011 Tohoku earthquake (M9.0) could be expected to induce an 8-class outer-rise earthquake at the Japan Trench. In order to assess the risk of tsunamis from outer-rise events, we carried out tsunami simulations using 33 simple rectangular fault models with 60 degrees dips based on geophysical studies of the Japan Trench. The largest tsunami resulting from these models, a fault 332 km long producing a 8.66 normal-faulting event, had a maximum height of 27.0 m. We tested variations of the predictions due to the uncertainties in the assumed parameters. Because seismic observations and surveys show that the dip angles of outer-rise faults range from 45 to 75 degrees, we calculated tsunamis from events on fault models with 45-75 degree dips. We tested a compound fault model with 75 degrees dip in the upper half and 45 degrees dip in the lower half. Rake angles were varied by plus-minus 15 degrees. We also tested models consisting of small subfaults with dimensions of about 60 km, models using other earthquake scaling laws, and models including dispersive tsunami effects. Predicted tsunami heights changed by 5-10% for dip angle changes, about 5-10% from considering tsunami dispersion, about 2% from rake angle changes, and about 1% from using the model with subfaults. The use of different earthquake scaling laws changed predicted tsunami heights by about 50% on average for the 33 fault models. We emphasize that the earthquake scaling law used in tsunami predictions for outer-rise earthquakes should be chosen with great care.

Jesse Hutchinson

and 7 more

At the northern Cascadia subduction zone, the subducting Explorer and Juan de Fuca plates interact across a transform deformation zone, known as the Nootka fault zone (NFZ). This study continues the Seafloor Earthquake Array Japan Canada Cascadia Experiment to a second phase (SeaJade II) consisting of nine months of recording of earthquakes using ocean-bottom and land-based seismometers. In addition to mapping the distribution of seismicity, including an MW 6.4 earthquake and aftershocks along the previously unknown Nootka Sequence Fault, we also conducted seismic tomography that delineates the geometry of the shallow subducting Explorer plate (ExP). We derived hundreds of high-quality focal mechanism solutions from the SeaJade II data. The mechanisms manifest a complex regional tectonic state, with normal faulting of the ExP west of the NFZ, left-lateral strike-slip behaviour of the NFZ, and reverse faulting within the overriding plate above the subducting Juan de Fuca plate. Using data from the combined SeaJade I and II catalogs, we have performed double-difference hypocentre relocations and found seismicity lineations to the southeast of, and oriented 18° clockwise from, the subducted NFZ, which we interpret to represent less active small faults off the primary faults of the NFZ. These lineations are not optimally oriented for shear failure in the regional stress field, which we inferred from averaged focal mechanism solutions, and may represent paleo-configurations of the NFZ. Further, active faults interpreted from seismicity lineations within the subducted plate, including the Nootka Sequence Fault, may have originated as conjugate faults within the paleo-NFZ.