The Eocene-Oligocene Transition (EOT) marks the shift from greenhouse to icehouse conditions at 34 Ma, when a permanent ice sheet developed on Antarctica. Climate modeling studies have recently assessed the drivers of the transition globally. Here we revisit those experiments for a detailed study of the southern high latitudes in comparison to the growing number of mean annual sea surface temperature (SST) and mean air temperature (MAT) proxy reconstructions, allowing us to assess proxy-model temperature agreement and refine estimates for the magnitude of the pCO2 forcing of the EOT. We compile and update published proxy temperature records on and around Antarctica for the late Eocene (38-34 Ma) and early Oligocene (34-30 Ma). Compiled SST proxies cool by up to 3°C and MAT by up to 4°C between the timeslices. Proxy data were compared to previous climate model simulations representing pre- and post-EOT, typically forced with a halving of pCO2. We scaled the model outputs to identify the magnitude of pCO2 change needed to drive a commensurate change in temperature to best fit the temperature proxies. The multi-model ensemble needs a 30 or 33% decrease in pCO2, to best fit MAT or SST proxies respectively, a difference of just 3%. These proxy-model intercomparisons identify pCO2 as the primary forcing of EOT cooling, with a magnitude (-200 or -243 ppmv) approaching that of the pCO2 proxies (-150 ppmv). However individual model estimates span -66 to -375 ppmv, thus proxy-model uncertainties are dominated by model divergence.

The Miocene epoch, spanning 23.03-5.33Ma, was a dynamic climate of sustained, polar amplified warmth. Miocene atmospheric CO2 concentrations are typically reconstructed between 300-600ppm and were potentially higher during the Miocene Climatic Optimum (16.75-14.5Ma). With surface temperature reconstructions pointing to substantial midlatitude and polar warmth, it is unclear what processes maintained the much weaker-than-modern equator-to-pole temperature difference. Here we synthesize several Miocene climate modeling efforts together with available terrestrial and ocean surface temperature reconstructions. We evaluate the range of model-data agreement, highlight robust mechanisms operating across Miocene modelling efforts, and regions where differences across experiments result in a large spread in warming responses. Prescribed CO2 is the primary factor controlling global warming across the ensemble. On average, elements other than CO2, such as Miocene paleogeography and ice sheets, raise global mean temperature by ~ 2℃, with the spread in warming under a given CO2 concentration (due to a combination of the spread in imposed boundary conditions and climate feedback strengths) equivalent to ~1.2 times a CO2 doubling. This study uses an ensemble of opportunity: models, boundary conditions, and reference datasets represent the state-of-art for the Miocene, but are inhomogeneous and not ideal for a formal intermodel comparison effort. Acknowledging this caveat, this study is nevertheless the first Miocene multi-model, multi-proxy comparison attempted so far. This study serves to take stock of the current progress towards simulating Miocene warmth while isolating remaining challenges that may be well served by community-led efforts to coordinate modelling and data activities within a common analysis framework.

Earth’s hydrological cycle is expected to intensify in response to global warming, with a ‘wet-gets-wetter, dry-gets-drier’ response anticipated. The subtropics (~15-30°N/S) are predicted to become drier, yet proxy evidence from past warm climates suggests these regions may be characterised by wetter conditions. Here we use an integrated data-modelling approach to reconstruct global- and regional-scale rainfall patterns during the early Eocene (~48-56 million years ago), with an emphasis on the subtropics. Model-derived precipitation–evaporation (P–E) estimates in the tropics (0-15° N/S) and high latitudes (>60° N/S) are positive and increase in response to higher temperatures, whereas model-derived P–E estimates in the subtropics (15-30° N/S) are negative and decrease in response to higher temperatures. This is consistent with a ‘wet-gets-wetter, dry-gets-drier’ response. However, some DeepMIP model simulations predict increasing – rather than decreasing – subtropical precipitation at higher temperatures (e.g., CESM, GFDL). Using moisture budget diagnostics we find that the models with higher subtropical precipitation are characterised by a reduction in the strength of subtropical moisture circulation due to weaker meridional temperature gradients. These model simulations (e.g., CESM, GFDL) agree more closely with various proxy-derived climate metrics and imply a reduction in the strength of subtropical moisture circulation during the early Eocene. Although this was insufficient to induce subtropical wetting, if the meridional temperature was weaker than suggested by the DeepMIP models, this may have led to wetter subtropics. This highlights the important role of the meridional temperature gradient when predicting past (and future) rainfall patterns.

Subtropical anticyclones and midlatitude storm tracks are key components of the large-scale atmospheric circulation. Focusing on the southern hemisphere, the seasonality of the three dominant subtropical anticyclones, situated over the South Pacific, South Atlantic and South Indian Ocean basins, has a large influence on local weather and climate within South America, Southern Africa and Australasia, respectively. Generally speaking, sea level pressure within the southern hemisphere subtropics reaches its seasonal maximum during the winter season when the southern hemisphere Hadley Cell is at its strongest. One exception to this is the seasonal evolution of the South Pacific subtropical anticyclone. While winter maxima are seen in the South Atlantic and South Indian subtropical anticyclones, the South Pacific subtropical anticyclone reaches its seasonal maximum during local spring with elevated values extending into summer. In this study we investigate the hypothesis that strength of the austral summer South Pacific subtropical anticyclone is largely due to heating over the South Pacific Convergence Zone. Using reanalysis data, and AGCM added cooling and heating experiments to artificially change the strength of diabatic heating over the South Pacific Convergence Zone, our results show that increased heating triggers a Rossby wave train over the Southern Hemisphere mid-latitudes by increasing upper-level divergence. The propagating Rossby wave train creates a high-low sea level pressure pattern that projects onto the center of the South Pacific Subtropical Anticyclone to intensify its area and strength. The southern hemisphere storm tracks also shift poleward due to increased heating over the South Pacific Convergence Zone.