Objectives: To estimate the frequency and factors associated with foregone and delayed medical care attributed to the COVID-19 pandemic among non-elderly adults from August to December 2020 in the US. Methods: We used three survey waves from the Urban Institute’s Household Pulse Survey (HPS) collected between August 19 to 31, October 14 to 26, and December 9 to 21. The final sample included 155,825 non-elderly (18 to 64) respondents representing 135,835,598 million individuals in the US. We used two multivariable logistic regressions to estimate the association between respondents’ characteristics and foregone and delayed care. Results: The frequency of foregone and delayed medical care were 26.9% and 35.9%, respectively. Across all income levels, around 60% of respondents reported difficulties in paying for usual household expenses in the last 7 days. More than half reported several days of mental health issues. The regression results indicated that foregone or delayed care were significantly associated with difficulties in paying usual household expenses (across all income levels) (P<.001), worse self-reported health status (P<.001), increased mental health problems (P<.001), Veterans Affairs (P<.001) or Medicaid (P=.002) coverage compared to private healthcare coverage, and older age groups. Individuals who participated in the latter two waves of the survey (October, December) were less likely to report foregone and delayed care compared to those who participated in wave 1 (August). Conclusion: Overall, the frequency of foregone and delayed medical care remained high from August to December 2020 among non-elderly US adults. Our findings highlight that pandemic-induced access barriers are major drivers of reduced healthcare provision during the second half of the pandemic and highlight the need for policies to support patients in seeking timely care.

Objective: To assess the ability of an extended Instrumental Variable Causal Forest Algorithm (IV-CFA) to provide personalized evidence of early surgery effects on benefits and detriments for elderly shoulder fracture patients. Data Sources/Study Setting: Population of 72,751 fee-for-service Medicare beneficiaries with proximal humerus fractures (PHFs) in 2011 who survived a 60-day treatment window after an index PHF and were continuously Medicare fee-for-service eligible over the period 12 months prior to index to the minimum of 12 months after index or death. Study Design: IV-CFA estimated early surgery effects on both beneficial and detrimental outcomes for each patient in the study population. Classification and regression trees (CART) were applied to these estimates to create patient reference classes. Two-stage least squares (2SLS) estimators were applied to patients in each reference class to scrutinize the estimates relative to the known 2SLS properties. Principal Findings: This approach uncovered distinct reference classes of elderly PHF patients with respect to early surgery effects on benefit and detriment. Older, frailer patients with more comorbidities, and lower utilizers of healthcare were less likely to gain benefit and more likely to have detriment from early surgery. Reference classes were characterized by the appropriateness of early surgery rates with respect to benefit and detriment. Conclusions: Extended IV-CFA provides an illuminating method to uncover reference classes of patients based on treatment effects using observational data with a strong instrumental variable. This study isolated reference classes of new PHF patients in which changes in early surgery rates would improve patient outcomes. The inability to measure fracture complexity in Medicare claims means providers will need to discuss the appropriateness of these estimates to patients within a reference class in context of this missing information.