Computing protein structure from amino acid sequence information has been a long-standing grand challenge. CASP (Critical Assessment of Structure Prediction) conducts community experiments aimed at advancing solutions to this and related problems. Experiments are conducted every two years. The 2020 experiment (CASP14) saw major progress, with the second generation of deep learning methods delivering accuracy comparable with experiment for many single proteins. There is an expectation that these methods will have much wider application in computational structural biology. Here we summarize results from the most recent experiment, CASP15, in 2022, with an emphasis on new deep learning-driven progress. Other papers in this special issue of Proteins provide more detailed analysis. For single protein structures, the AlphaFold2 deep learning method is still superior to other approaches, but there are two points of note. First, although AlphaFold2 was the core of all the most successful methods, there was a wide variety of implementation and combination with other methods. Second, using the standard AlphaFold2 protocol and default parameters only produces the highest quality result for about two thirds of the targets, and more extensive sampling is required for the others. The major advance in this CASP is the enormous increase in the accuracy of computed protein complexes, achieved by the use of deep learning methods, although overall these do not fully match the performance for single proteins. Here too, AlphaFold2 based method perform best, and again more extensive sampling than the defaults is often required. Also of note are the encouraging early results on the use of deep learning to compute ensembles of macromolecular structures. Critically for the usability of computed structures, for both single proteins and protein complexes, deep learning derived estimates of both local and global accuracy are of high quality, however the estimates in interface regions are slightly less reliable. CASP15 also included computation of RNA structures for the first time. Here, the classical approaches produced better agreement with experiment than the new deep learning ones, and accuracy is limited. Also, for the first time, CASP included the computation of protein-ligand complexes, an area of special interest for drug design. Here too, classical methods were still superior to deep learning ones. Many new approaches were discussed at the CASP conference, and it is clear methods will continue to advance.

The prediction of protein-ligand complexes (PLC), using both experimental and predicted structures, is an active and important area of research, underscored by the inclusion of the Protein-Ligand Interaction category in the latest round of the Critical Assessment of Protein Structure Prediction experiment CASP15. The prediction task in CASP15 consisted of predicting both the 3-dimensional structure of the receptor protein as well as the position and conformation of the ligand. This paper addresses the challenges and proposed solutions for devising automated benchmarking techniques for PLC prediction. The reliability of experimentally solved PLC as ground truth reference structures is assessed using various validation criteria. Similarity of PLC to previously released complexes are employed to judge the novelty and difficulty of a PLC as a prediction target. We show that the commonly used PDBBind time-split test-set is inappropriate for comprehensive PLC evaluation. Finally, we introduce a fully automated pipeline that predicts PLC and evaluates the accuracy of the protein structure, ligand pose, and protein-ligand interactions.

Reliably scoring and ranking candidate models of protein complexes and assigning their oligomeric state from the structure of the crystal lattice represent outstanding challenges. A community-wide effort was launched to tackle these challenges. The latest resources on protein complexes and interfaces were exploited to derive a benchmark dataset consisting of 1677 homodimer protein crystal structures, including a balanced mix of physiological and non-physiological complexes. The non-physiological complexes in the benchmark were selected to bury a similar or larger interface area than their physiological counterparts, making it more difficult for scoring functions to differentiate between them. Next, 252 functions for scoring protein-protein interfaces previously developed by 13 groups were collected and evaluated for their ability to discriminate between physiological and non-physiological complexes. A simple consensus score generated using the best performing score of each of the 13 groups, and a cross-validated Random Forest (RF) classifier were created. Both approaches showed excellent performance, with an area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve of 0.93 and 0.94 respectively, outperforming individual scores developed by different groups. Additionally, AlphaFold2 engines were shown to recall the physiological dimers with significantly higher accuracy than the non-physiological set, lending support for the pertinence of our benchmark dataset. Optimizing the combined power of interface scoring functions and evaluating it on challenging benchmark datasets appears to be a promising strategy.

Prediction categories in the Critical Assessment of Structure Prediction (CASP) experiments change with the need to address specific problems in structure modeling. In CASP15, four new prediction categories were introduced: RNA structure, ligand-protein complexes, accuracy of oligomeric structures and their interfaces, and ensembles of alternative conformations. This paper lists technical specifications for these categories and describes their integration in the CASP data management system.

The Continuous Automated Model EvaluatiOn (CAMEO) platform complements the biennial CASP experiment by conducting fully automated blind evaluations of 3D protein prediction servers based on the weekly pre‐release of sequences of those structures, which are going to be published in the upcoming release of the Protein Data Bank (PDB). While in CASP14 significant success was observed in predicting the structures of individual protein chains with high accuracy, significant challenges remain in correctly predicting the structures of complexes. By implementing fully automated evaluation of predictions for protein-protein complexes, as well as for proteins in complex with ligands, peptides, nucleic acids, or proteins containing non-canonical amino acid residues, CAMEO will assist new developments in those challenging areas of active research.