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Higher Onshore Wind Energy Potentials Revealed by Kilometer-scale Atmospheric Modeling
  • +7
  • Shuying Chen,
  • Klaus Goergen,
  • Harrie-Jan Hendricks Franssen,
  • Christoph Winkler,
  • Stefan Poll,
  • Yoda Wahabou,
  • Jochen Linssen,
  • Harry Vereecken,
  • Detlef Stolten,
  • Heidi Heinrichs
Shuying Chen
Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Klaus Goergen
Research Centre Jülich
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Harrie-Jan Hendricks Franssen
Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH
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Christoph Winkler
Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH
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Stefan Poll
Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH
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Yoda Wahabou
Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH
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Jochen Linssen
Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH
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Harry Vereecken
Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH
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Detlef Stolten
Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH
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Heidi Heinrichs
Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH
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Abstract

Reliable and highly resolved information about onshore wind energy potential (WEP) is essential for expanding renewable energy to eventually achieve carbon neutrality. In this pilot study, simulated 60 m wind speeds (ws60m) from a km-scale, convection-permitting 3.3 km-resolution ICON-LAM simulation and often-used 31 km-resolution ERA5 reanalysis are evaluated at 18 weather masts. The estimated ICON-LAM and ERA5 WEPs are compared using an innovative approach with 1.8 million eligible wind turbine placements over southern Africa. Results show ERA5 underestimates ws60m with a Mean Error (ME) of -1.8 m s-1 (-27%). In contrast, ICON-LAM shows a ME of -0.1 m s-1 (-1.8%), resulting in a much higher average WEP by 48% compared to ERA5. A combined Global Wind Atlas-ERA5 product reduces the ws60m underestimation of ERA5 to -0.3 m s-1 (-4.7%), but shows a similar average WEP compared to ERA5 resulting from the WEP spatial heterogeneity.
07 May 2024Submitted to ESS Open Archive
08 May 2024Published in ESS Open Archive