Higher Onshore Wind Energy Potentials Revealed by Kilometer-scale
Atmospheric Modeling
Abstract
Reliable and highly resolved information about onshore wind energy
potential (WEP) is essential for expanding renewable energy to
eventually achieve carbon neutrality. In this pilot study, simulated 60
m wind speeds (ws60m) from a km-scale, convection-permitting 3.3
km-resolution ICON-LAM simulation and often-used 31 km-resolution ERA5
reanalysis are evaluated at 18 weather masts. The estimated ICON-LAM and
ERA5 WEPs are compared using an innovative approach with 1.8 million
eligible wind turbine placements over southern Africa. Results show ERA5
underestimates ws60m with a Mean Error (ME) of -1.8 m s-1 (-27%). In
contrast, ICON-LAM shows a ME of -0.1 m s-1 (-1.8%), resulting in a
much higher average WEP by 48% compared to ERA5. A combined Global Wind
Atlas-ERA5 product reduces the ws60m underestimation of ERA5 to -0.3 m
s-1 (-4.7%), but shows a similar average WEP compared to ERA5 resulting
from the WEP spatial heterogeneity.