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Injected fluid volume controls seismicity migration in earthquake swarms through aseismic crack propagation
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  • Philippe DANRE,
  • Dmitry I Garagash,
  • Louis De Barros,
  • Frédéric Cappa,
  • Jean-Paul Ampuero
Philippe DANRE
Géoazur

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Dmitry I Garagash
Dalhousie University
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Louis De Barros
Université Côte d'Azur, CNRS, Obervatoire de la Côte d'Azur, IRD, Géoazur
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Frédéric Cappa
Université Côte d'Azur, CNRS, Observatoire de la Côte d'Azur, IRD, Géoazur
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Jean-Paul Ampuero
Institut de Recherche pour le Développement
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Abstract

The evolution of fluid injection-induced seismicity, generally characterized through the number of events or their seismic moment, depends on, among other factors, the injected fluid volume. Migration of seismicity is observed during those sequences and might be caused by a range of mechanisms: fluid pressure diffusion, fluid-induced aseismic slip propagating along a stimulated fault, interactions between earthquakes. Recent theoretical and observational developments underline the important effect on seismicity migration of structural parameters, like fault criticality, or injection parameters, like flow rate or pressurization rate. Here, we analyze two well-studied injection-induced seismic sequences at the Soultz-sous-Fôret and Basel geothermal sites, and find that the evolution of the seismicity front distance primarily depends on the injected fluid volume. Based on a fracture mechanics model, we develop new equations relating seismicity migration to injected fluid volume and frictional and structural properties of the fault. We find that the propagation of a fluid-induced aseismic slip front along the stimulated fault, triggering seismicity, explains well the observations made on the two sequences. This model allows us to constrain parameters describing the seismicity front evolution and explains the diversity of migration patterns observed in injection-induced and natural earthquake swarms.
14 Jun 2023Submitted to ESS Open Archive
14 Jun 2023Published in ESS Open Archive