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Centennial-scale intensification of wet and dry extremes in North America
  • Kyungmin Sung,
  • Gil Bohrer,
  • James Howard Stagge
Kyungmin Sung
The Ohio State University
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Gil Bohrer
Ohio State University
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James Howard Stagge
The Ohio State University

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Abstract

Drought and pluvial extremes are defined as deviations from typical climatology; however, the background climatology can shift over time in a non-stationary climate, impacting interpretations of extremes. This study evaluated changes in meteorological drought and pluvial extremes by merging tree-ring reconstructions, observations, and climate-model simulations spanning 850 – 2100 CE across North America to determine whether the Industrial era and projected future lie outside the range of natural climate variability. Our results found widespread and spatially consistent exacerbation of both extremes, especially summer drought and winter pluvials, with west and south drying, the northeast wetting trends, and increased interannual variability across the east and north. Our study underscores climate change has already shifted precipitation climatology beyond pre-Industrial climatology and is projected to further intensify ongoing shifts.
25 Apr 2023Submitted to ESS Open Archive
30 Apr 2023Published in ESS Open Archive