Satellite-Based Observation Snowmelt Runoff Modelling insight of Climate
Changes in an Alpine Chitral River basin, Pakistan
Abstract
Snowmelt runoff is an important element of the hydrological cycle as
global warming and climate change are causing the retreat of glaciers
particularly in the northern region of Pakistan. These climatic
variations cause significant changes in snow and the glaciated
environment causing an influence on the Indus river runoff contributed
by Chitral Basin. The daily discharge of the Chitral River Basin (CRB)
over the Hindukush area is simulated in this study using the Snowmelt
Runoff Model (SRM) model under realistic concentration pathways and
climate change scenarios in the period from 2011 to 2020. The daily
temperature, precipitation, and snow cover data were used as input
variables to determine discharge by using SRM. The results of the
simulation showed that snow cover is sensitive to climate change,
particularly when there is an increase in temperature. The Coefficient
of determination (R2) values indicate that SRM is good for daily runoff
simulations in combination with MODIS-derived Snow-Covered Area (SCA)
and can be optimized for long-term runoff simulations in the CRB. The
results of the model simulation showed that the SRM composite
reliability values were 0.83-0.91 (R2) in the period from 2011 to 2020
and the snow melting is increasing with respect to time and rising
temperatures. The results revealed that the sensitivity of climatic
changes, particularly temperature and precipitation fluctuations from
north to south, is a major factor in the spatiotemporal melting of snow
over the years. The model calculations technique assists effective water
resource management, promoting environmental preservation as well as
community economic prosperity.