loading page

Shift peaks of PAH-associated health risks from East Asia to South Asia and Africa in the future
  • +8
  • Sijia Lou,
  • Manish Shrivastava,
  • Aijun Ding,
  • Richard C. Easter,
  • Jerome Fast,
  • Philip J. Rasch,
  • Huizhong Shen,
  • Staci Simonich Massey,
  • Steven Smith,
  • Shu Tao,
  • Alla Zelenyuk
Sijia Lou
Nanjing University

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

Author Profile
Manish Shrivastava
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
Author Profile
Aijun Ding
Nanjing University
Author Profile
Richard C. Easter
Pacifc Northwest National Laboratory
Author Profile
Jerome Fast
PNNL
Author Profile
Philip J. Rasch
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (DOE)
Author Profile
Huizhong Shen
Southern University of Science and Technology
Author Profile
Staci Simonich Massey
Oregon State University
Author Profile
Steven Smith
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (DOE)
Author Profile
Shu Tao
Peking University
Author Profile
Alla Zelenyuk
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (DOE)
Author Profile

Abstract

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), emitted from combustion of biofuels and fossil fuels, are toxic compounds and known to cause lung-cancer. Integrating a global atmospheric chemistry model and plausible future emissions trajectories, we assess how global PAHs and their associated lung cancer risk will likely change in the future. Benzo(a)pyrene (BaP) is used as an indicator of cancer risk from PAH mixtures. From 2008 to 2050, the population-weighted global average BaP concentrations under all RCPs consistently exceeded the WHO-recommended limits, primarily attributed to residential biofuel use. In developing regions of Africa and South Asia, PAH-associated lung-cancer risk increased by 30-64% from 2008 to 2050, due to increasing use of traditional biofuels with population growth. With the stringent air quality policy, PAH lung-cancer risk substantially decreases by ~80% in developed countries. Climate change is likely to have minor effects on PAH lung-cancer risk compared with the impact of emissions.