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Causal links between Arctic sea ice and its potential drivers based on the rate of information transfer
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  • David Docquier,
  • Stephane Vannitsem,
  • Francesco Ragone,
  • Klaus Wyser,
  • X. San Liang
David Docquier
Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Stephane Vannitsem
Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium
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Francesco Ragone
Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium and Université Catholique de Louvain
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Klaus Wyser
SMHI
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X. San Liang
Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China
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Abstract

Arctic sea ice has substantially changed over the past four decades, with a large decrease in sea-ice area and volume. The exact causes of these changes are not entirely known. In our study, we make use of the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute Large Ensemble (SMHI-LENS). This ensemble consists of 50 members realized with the EC-Earth3 global climate model and covers the period 1970-2100. We apply the Liang-Kleeman information flow method to analyze the cause-effect relationships between Arctic sea ice and its potential drivers. We show that recent and future changes in Arctic sea ice are mainly driven by air and sea-surface temperatures and ocean heat transport. Conversely, changes in Arctic sea ice also considerably impact temperature and ocean heat transport. Finally, we find a progressive decrease in the influence of sea-ice area and volume on air temperature and ocean heat transport through the twenty-first century.