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Prospect of increased disruption to the QBO in a changing climate
  • +4
  • James A. Anstey,
  • Timothy P. Banyard,
  • Neal Butchart,
  • Lawrence Coy,
  • Paul A. Newman,
  • Scott Osprey,
  • Corwin Wright
James A. Anstey
Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Timothy P. Banyard
University of Bath, University of Bath, University of Bath
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Neal Butchart
Met Office Hadley Centre, Met Office Hadley Centre, Met Office Hadley Centre
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Lawrence Coy
NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Greenbelt, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Greenbelt, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Greenbelt
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Paul A. Newman
NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Greenbelt, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Greenbelt, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Greenbelt
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Scott Osprey
National Centre for Atmospheric Science, National Centre for Atmospheric Science, National Centre for Atmospheric Science
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Corwin Wright
University of Bath, University of Bath, University of Bath
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Abstract

The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) of tropical stratospheric winds was disrupted during the 2019/20 Northern Hemisphere winter. We show that this latest disruption to the regular QBO cycling was similar in many respects to that seen in 2016, but initiated by horizontal momentum transport from the Southern Hemisphere. The predictable signal associated with the QBO’s quasi-regular phase progression is lost during disruptions and the oscillation reemerges after a few months significantly shifted in phase from what would be expected if it had progressed uninterrupted. We infer from an increased wave-momentum flux into equatorial latitudes seen in climate model projections that disruptions to the QBO are likely to become more common in future. Consequently it is possible that in future the QBO could be a less reliable source of predictability on lead times extending out to several years than it currently is.
Aug 2021Published in Geophysical Research Letters volume 48 issue 15. 10.1029/2021GL093058