The potentiality of an improved physics-based earthquake simulation algorithm for modelling the long-term spatiotemporal process of strong earthquakes preparation is explored. The physical model on which this version of our simulation algorithm is based includes the Rate & State constitutive law, in addition to tectonic stress loading and static stress transfer. We applied the simulator code to a physical model of the Corinth Gulf (Greece) fault system, a rapidly extending rift about 100 km long, where the deformation is taken by major fault segments aligned along the southern coastline of the Corinth Gulf, and associated with several strong (6.0) earthquakes in the last few centuries. In particular, the recurrence time of strong events and their spatial relation are studied. The results of this simulation provide interesting inferences on the spatiotemporal properties of seismic activity in the study area.

As the simulator algorithm allows displaying the stress pattern on all the single elements constituting the seismic structure, in this study we have focused our attention on the time evolution of the level of stress before, during and after strong earthquakes. In particular, we have quantitatively recognized that the ratio between the average stress and its standard deviation on the patches constituting a specific fault segment, always increases at an accelerating rate before a large rupture on a part or the entire segment, or even several collective segments.