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Assessing Impacts of Decision-Making Theories on Agrohydrological Networks Using Agent-Based Modelling.
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  • Maria Elena Orduña Alegria,
  • Niels Schütze,
  • Al Khatri, Ayisha,
  • Mialyk Oleksandr,
  • Grundmann Jens
Maria Elena Orduña Alegria
Technische Universität Dresden

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Niels Schütze
Technische Universität Dresden
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Al Khatri, Ayisha
Technische Universität Dresden
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Mialyk Oleksandr
Technische Universität Dresden
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Grundmann Jens
Technische Universität Dresden
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Abstract

Water scarcity, population growth and climate change dilemmas imperatively require adaption strategies for a more efficient and sustainable use of water resources. Agricultural systems are part of a wider network, where all social, economic and, ecologic parameters must be taken into consideration to assess the performance and resilience of said network. The importance of accounting the complexity of human decisions and their impact on the water cycle has been increasingly studied, nevertheless the integration and analysis of different decision making theories into hydrological models still remains a major challenge and uncertainty source. Therefore, the ongoing project is aimed to improve the understanding of social dynamics in agrohydrological networks by assessing different irrigation practices including rainfed agriculture and deficit irrigation within a hydro-economic network. We developed an agent-based model (ABM) of farmer decision making on crop water productivity and groundwater levels using two existing optimization models: (i) the Assessment, Prognosis, Planning and Management Tool (APPM) (Schmitz, et al. 2010) that integrates the complex interactions of the strongly nonlinear meteorological, hydrological and agricultural phenomena, considering the socio-economic aspects and (ii) the Deficit Irrigation Toolbox (DIT) (Schütze and Mialyk 2019) to maximize crop-water productivity by analyzing the crop yield response to climate change, soil variability, water management practices. The developed ABM was assessed with the different theories on human decision-making based on the Modelling Human Behavior (MoHuB) framework (Schlüter, et al. 2017). As a result of this study, a sensitivity analysis of how different behavioral theories affect the dynamics of social-ecological systems which enables the evaluation of the robustness of policy implementation to different assumptions of human behavior where cooperation is a mechanism to improve resilience. This research was funded by the Technische Universität Dresden, by means of the Excellence Initiative by the German Federal and State Governments.