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\begin{document}

\title{Simulating aerosol-radiation effects on subseasonal prediction using the
coupled Unified Forecast System and CCPP-Chem: prescribed aerosol
climatology versus interactive aerosol model}



\author[1]{Shan Sun}%
\author[1]{Georg A. A. Grell}%
\author[2]{Li (Kate) Zhang}%
\author[3]{Siyuan Wang}%
\author[4]{Dominikus Heinzeller}%
\author[5]{Haiqin Li}%
\author[1]{Jessica Meixner}%
\author[6]{Partha Sarathi Bhattacharjee}%
\author[7]{Judy Henderson}%
\affil[1]{National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)}%
\affil[2]{NOAA ESRL}%
\affil[3]{CIRES/CU Boulder, NOAA/CSL}%
\affil[4]{University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR) / UCAR Community Programs / Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation}%
\affil[5]{CIRES/University of Colorado Boulder at NOAA/GSL}%
\affil[6]{NOAA/NCEP}%
\affil[7]{NOAA/GSL}%


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  \date{May 19, 2024}


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\begin{abstract}
This study investigates the effects of aerosol-radiation interaction on
subseasonal prediction using the Unified Forecast System (UFS) with an
ocean, a sea ice and a wave component, coupled to an aerosol component.
The aerosol component is from the current NOAA operational
GEFSv12-Aerosols model, which includes the GOCART aerosol modules
simulating sulfate, dust, black carbon, organic carbon, and sea-salt.
The modeled aerosol optical depth (AOD) is compared to reanalysis from
Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version
2 (MERRA2) and observations from Moderate Resolution Imaging
Spectro-radiometer (MODIS) satellite andAtmospheric Tomography (ATom)
aircraft. Despite biases primarily in dust and sea salt, a good
agreement in AOD is achieved globally. The simulated radiative forcing
(RF) from the total aerosols at the top of the atmosphere is
approximately -2.5 W/m2 or -16 W/m2 per unit AOD globally. This is
consistent with previous studies.

In subsequent simulations, prognostic aerosol component is substituted
with climatological aerosol concentrations derived from initial
experiments. While regional differences in RF are noticeable in specific
events between these two experiments, the resulting RF, surface
temperature, geopotential height at 500 hPa and precipitation, show
similarities in multi-year subseasonal applications. This suggests that
given the current capacities of the aerosol modeling, adopting a
climatology of aerosol concentrations as a cost-effective substitute for
the intricate aerosol module may be a practical approach for subseasonal
applications.%
\end{abstract}%



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