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Endo-exo framework for a unifying classification of episodic landslide movements
  • Qinghua Lei,
  • Didier Sornette
Qinghua Lei
Uppsala University

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Didier Sornette
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We propose the “endo-exo” conceptual framework to account for the varied and complex episodic landslide movements observed during progressive maturation until collapse/stabilization. This framework captures the interplay between exogenous stressors such as rainfall and endogenous damage/healing processes. The underlying physical picture involves cascades of local triggered mass movements due to fracturing and sliding. We predict four distinct types of episodic landslide dynamics (exogenous/endogenous-subcritical/critical), characterized by power-law relaxations with different exponents, all related to a single parameter ϑ. These predictions are tested on the dataset of the Preonzo landslide, which exhibited multi-year episodic movements prior to a final collapse. All episodic activities can be accounted for within this classification with ϑ≈0.45±0.1, providing strong support for our parsimonious theory. We further show that the final catastrophic failure of this landslide is clearly preceded by an increased frequency of large velocities corresponding to a transition to a supercritical regime with amplifying positive feedbacks.