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\begin{document}

\title{Observational limitations to the emergence of climate signals}



\author[1]{Louis Rivoire}%
\author[2]{Marianna Linz}%
\author[3]{Jingyuan Li}%
\affil[1]{Massachusetts Institute of Technology}%
\affil[2]{Harvard University}%
\affil[3]{Scripps Institution of Oceanography}%


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  \date{May 22, 2024}


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\begin{abstract}
Using model projections to study the emergence of observable climate
signals presumes omniscient knowledge about the climate system. In
reality, observational knowledge suffers from data quality and
availability issues. Overlooking such deficiencies leads to
misrepresentations of the time of emergence (ToE). We introduce a new
definition of ToE that accounts for observational limitations (e.g.,
data gaps, gridding, changes in instrumentation, retrieval algorithms,
etc), and show the potential for significant corrections to achieve the
same statistical confidence as would be afforded by omniscient
knowledge. We also show how our method can inform future observational
needs and observing systems design.%
\end{abstract}%



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