\documentclass[10pt]{article}

\usepackage{fullpage}
\usepackage{setspace}
\usepackage{parskip}
\usepackage{titlesec}
\usepackage[section]{placeins}
\usepackage{xcolor}
\usepackage{breakcites}
\usepackage{lineno}
\usepackage{hyphenat}





\PassOptionsToPackage{hyphens}{url}
\usepackage[colorlinks = true,
            linkcolor = blue,
            urlcolor  = blue,
            citecolor = blue,
            anchorcolor = blue]{hyperref}
\usepackage{etoolbox}
\makeatletter
\patchcmd\@combinedblfloats{\box\@outputbox}{\unvbox\@outputbox}{}{%
  \errmessage{\noexpand\@combinedblfloats could not be patched}%
}%
\makeatother


\usepackage{natbib}




\renewenvironment{abstract}
  {{\bfseries\noindent{\abstractname}\par\nobreak}\footnotesize}
  {\bigskip}

\titlespacing{\section}{0pt}{*3}{*1}
\titlespacing{\subsection}{0pt}{*2}{*0.5}
\titlespacing{\subsubsection}{0pt}{*1.5}{0pt}


\usepackage{authblk}


\usepackage{graphicx}
\usepackage[space]{grffile}
\usepackage{latexsym}
\usepackage{textcomp}
\usepackage{longtable}
\usepackage{tabulary}
\usepackage{booktabs,array,multirow}
\usepackage{amsfonts,amsmath,amssymb}
\providecommand\citet{\cite}
\providecommand\citep{\cite}
\providecommand\citealt{\cite}
% You can conditionalize code for latexml or normal latex using this.
\newif\iflatexml\latexmlfalse
\providecommand{\tightlist}{\setlength{\itemsep}{0pt}\setlength{\parskip}{0pt}}%

\AtBeginDocument{\DeclareGraphicsExtensions{.pdf,.PDF,.eps,.EPS,.png,.PNG,.tif,.TIF,.jpg,.JPG,.jpeg,.JPEG}}

\usepackage[utf8]{inputenc}
\usepackage[ngerman,english]{babel}



\usepackage{float}








\begin{document}

\title{Estimating uncertainty in simulated ENSO statistics}



\author[1]{Yann Yvon Planton}%
\author[2]{Jiwoo Lee}%
\author[3]{Andrew T. Wittenberg}%
\author[2]{Peter J. Gleckler}%
\author[4]{Eric Guilyardi}%
\author[1]{Shayne McGregor}%
\author[5]{Michael J. McPhaden}%
\affil[1]{Monash University}%
\affil[2]{Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (DOE)}%
\affil[3]{NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory}%
\affil[4]{LOCEAN-IPSL (Sorbonne Université, CNRS, IRD, MNHN)}%
\affil[5]{NOAA/PMEL}%


\vspace{-1em}



  
  \date{May 17, 2024}


\begingroup
\let\center\flushleft
\let\endcenter\endflushleft
\maketitle
\endgroup





\selectlanguage{english}
\begin{abstract}
The use of large ensembles of model simulations is growing due to the
need to minimize the influence of internal variability in evaluation of
climate models and the detection of climate change induced trends. Yet,
exactly how many ensemble members are required to effectively separate
internal variability from climate change varies from model to model and
metric to metric. Here we analyze the first three statistical moments
(i.e., mean, variance and skewness) of detrended precipitation and sea
surface temperature (interannual anomalies for variance and skewness) in
the eastern equatorial Pacific from observations and ensembles of
Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) climate
simulations. We then develop/assess the equations, based around
established statistical theory, for estimating the required ensemble
size for a user defined uncertainty range. Our results show that --- as
predicted by statistical theory --- the uncertainties in ensemble means
of these statistics decreases with the square root of the time series
length and/or ensemble size. Further to this, as the uncertainties of
these ensemble-mean statistics are generally similar when computed using
pre-Industrial control runs versus historical runs, the pre-industrial
runs can sometimes be used to estimate: i) the number of realizations
and years needed for a historical ensemble to adequately characterize a
given statistic; or ii) the expected uncertainty of statistics computed
from an existing historical simulation or ensemble, if a large ensemble
is not available.%
\end{abstract}%



\sloppy


\textbf{Hosted file}

\verb`980810_0_art_file_11637754_s4vj1t.docx`  available at \url{https://authorea.com/users/705664/articles/691211-estimating-uncertainty-in-simulated-enso-statistics}

\textbf{Hosted file}

\verb`980810_0_supp_11637756_s4vj1t.docx`  available at \url{https://authorea.com/users/705664/articles/691211-estimating-uncertainty-in-simulated-enso-statistics}

\selectlanguage{english}
\FloatBarrier
\end{document}

