Figure 3. Proposed emergent relationships over the last millennium. We compare temperature variability, computed over the 850-1999 period, to ECS for both interannual (a) and decadal (b) variability metrics. Regression lines are computed separately for the PMIP3-CMIP5 ensemble (solid orange), the PMIP4-CMIP6 ensemble (solid blue), and the overall ensemble (solid black). The 66th percentile prediction intervals for the overall ensemble regression are plotted (dotted black). PAGES 2k mean (gray dashed) and 66% interval (gray shaded) values are shown. Correlation coefficients are labeled on each plot and color coded according to ensemble.