Fig. 4 Probability of known foraging area inclusion within refined foraging circles refined by multi-colony models with different transferability (AUC). Coloured lines (± 95% CI) represent the interaction between inclusion of known foraging areas in refined foraging circles, when simulating refinement over all possible percentiles of predicted foraging habitat suitability, and multi-colony model transferability (five transferability values selected for demonstration; regression equation provided to predict on log odds scale). Black rings show the known foraging area inclusion observed at tracked colonies when refined foraging circles were refined using the percentile of habitat suitability selected by transferability-supported refinement. The black line (± 95% CI) displays the trend through these rings (from a generalised additive model), showing overall high known foraging area inclusion and effective offset of greater refinement by more accurate models.
Table 4. Species-specific logistic regression model coefficients for predicting probability of known foraging area inclusion within refined foraging circles. Intercepts give the probability of known foraging area inclusion within unrefined global foraging circles. Coefficients are presented on the log odds scale and can predict probability of known foraging area inclusion for a desired percentile of habitat suitability value (p ) from a multi-colony model with transferability (t ) using the equation: exp(β0+(β1*p )+(β2*p*t ))/(1+ exp(β0+(β1*p )+(β2*p*t ))). For example, the probability of masked booby (MABO) known foraging areas being included in a refined foraging circle refined with the 30th percentile (0.3) of foraging habitat suitability and predicted from a poor transferability model (e.g. AUC=0.64) is: exp(4.39+(-15.42*0.3)+(13.1*0.3*0.64))/(1+exp(4.39+(-15.42*0.3)+(13.1*0.3*0.64)))= 90%.