Title:

Asynchronous population trends stabilize mesopredatory coral reef fish communities in the face of global change.

Authors:

Rucha Karkarey¹, Eva Maire¹, Nicholas A.J. Graham¹, Valeriano Parravicini², Simon. J. Brandl³, Jeremy Carlot⁴, Mehdi Adjeroud⁵, Rohan Arthur^6,7, Teresa Alcoverro^6,7, Shaun. K. Wilson^8,9, Jordan Goetze^10,11, Thomas H. Holmes^9,10, Julien Wickel¹², Dan. A. Exton¹³, and Sally Anne Keith¹.

Affiliations:

1. Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, LA1 4YQ

2. PSL Université Paris, Ecole Pratique des Hautes Etudes, USR 3278 CRIOBE, Université de Perpignan, Perpignan, France.

3. Department of Marine Science, The University of Texas at Austin, Marine Science Institute, Port Aransas, TX 78373, USA.

4. Sorbonne Université, CNRS-INSU, Laboratoire d’Océanographie de Villefranche, 181 chemin du Lazaret, Villefranche-sur-Mer F–06230, France.

5. ENTROPIE, IRD, Université de la Réunion, CNRS, IFREMER, Université de la Nouvelle-Calédonie, Perpignan, France

6. Nature Conservation Foundation, 1311 Amritha, 12th Cross, Vijayanagar 1st Stage, Mysore 570017, India

7. Centre d’Estudis Avançats de Blanes (CSIC), c/Acc Cala St. Francesc 14, Blanes 17300, Spain

8. Australian Institute of Marine Science, UWA Oceans Institute, Crawley, WA, Australia

9. Oceans Institute, University of Western Australia, Crawley, WA, Australia

10. Marine Science Program, Biodiversity and Conservation Science, Department of Biodiversity, Conservation and Attractions, Kensington, WA, Australia

11. School of Molecular and Life Sciences, Curtin University, Perth, Western Australia, Australia

12. MAREX Ltd, 214 CD 13, 24 Piton Saint leu, la Réunion

13. Operation Wallacea, Wallace House, Old Bolingbroke, Spilsby, Lincolnshire, PE23 4EX

Corresponding author:

Rucha Karkarey

Senior Research Associate,

Lancaster Environment Centre,

Lancaster University,

LA1 4YQ

rucha.karkarey@lancaster.ac.uk

Short title:

Community stability of mesopredatory reef fishes.

Keywords:

community stability, community asynchrony, dominant species stability, response diversity, biotic interactions.

Article type:

Letter

MS metadata:

Abstract: 140

Main text: 4382

Number of references: 78

Number of figures and tables: 4 Figures, 2 Tables

Statement of authorship:

RK conceived the study, collected data from Lakshadweep, performed the analysis, and wrote the first draft of the manuscript. EM helped with data extraction, R code, for analyses, design and write-up. SAK and NAJG conceived and designed the study with RK. SJB, VP and JC collated the global SCORE-REEF database. VP and MA administered the SCORE REEFs project. Data was collected across the tropics by RA, TA, SKW, DAE, MA, JW, JG, THH and their teams. JC edited the figures and helped with R code. All authors contributed substantially to revisions.

Data accessibility statement:

Data and code used in this MS is available in DRYAD: https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.j6q573nmn.

Temporary link: https://datadryad.org/stash/share/sKdUOmIymUpJ_kn-WnGZKxHp6CZzbg0d_YpWEQidf-Q