Figure 3. Winter survival estimates by color morph from the top-ranked model for ruffed grouse over five winter seasons. The negative effect of phenotypic mismatch with snow cover was strongest during the second winter season of the study, when overall survival estimates were lowest. (a) Derived weekly survival estimates during the second winter field season in 2016-17, gray shaded area indicates the period of persistent snow cover and (b) derived overwinter survival estimates by color morph over five winter seasons (Nov – Mar, 2015-18 and 2020-22). The top-ranked model included time-varying individual covariates of mismatch and proportion of winter use area covered by open habitat. Mean covariate values by morph were used. Error bars are 95% confidence intervals.