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\begin{document}

\title{Modelling the response of mangroves and saltmarshes to sea-level rise:
model development and validation}



\author[1]{Kerrylee Rogers}%
\author[2]{Laura A Mogensen}%
\author[2]{Oxana Repina}%
\author[3]{Neil Saintilan}%
\affil[1]{University of Wollongong}%
\affil[2]{University Of Wollongong}%
\affil[3]{Macquarie University}%


\vspace{-1em}



  
  \date{May 27, 2024}


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\selectlanguage{english}
\begin{abstract}
Models of the response of mangrove forests and saltmarshes to sea-level
rise are needed to inform coastal decision making. Zero-dimensional
models that simulate evolution of a point are foundational for
developing spatially explicit landscape models projecting coastal
wetland extents under future sea-level rise scenarios. However, both
zero-dimensional and spatially explicit landscape models have suffered
from insufficient calibration and inadequate validation. In this study,
a zero-dimensional model framework was parameterised using real data
from four sub-sites exhibiting varying rates of mineral and organic
matter addition and autocompaction. The model was calibrated to
correspond to tidal parameters at each sub-site and validation was
undertaken across three timescales to assess model efficacy. Short-term
validation encompassed the period over which measurements of surface
elevation gain were determined using a network of surface elevation
tables (\textasciitilde{}20 years); medium-term validation encompassed
the period when higher resolution colour aerial photography was
available (\textasciitilde{}35 years); and long-term validation focussed
on the period of landscape evolution occurring since the mid-Holocene.
The model performed well at the medium to long-term scale and was within
the range of variability arising from surface elevation table
measurements. This study demonstrates the critical need for
site-specific data, a crucial component that is undervalued, often
insufficiently resourced to generate useful data, and commonly addressed
by extrapolating parameters generated from elsewhere. Validation has
provided the necessary confidence for further model development at the
landscape scale that will account for processes operating both
vertically and laterally, such as shoreline erosion and tidal creek
extension.%
\end{abstract}%



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\textbf{Hosted file}

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