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\begin{document}

\title{Differing drivers of decline within a metapopulation has implications
for future conservation}



\author[1]{Luke Ozsanlav-Harris}%
\author[2]{Geoff Hilton}%
\author[3]{Larry Griffin}%
\author[4]{Alyn Walsh}%
\author[5]{Lei Cao}%
\author[6]{Mitch Weegman}%
\author[1]{Stuart Bearhop}%
\affil[1]{University of Exeter}%
\affil[2]{Wildfowl \& Wetlands Trust}%
\affil[3]{Wildfowl and Wetlands Trust}%
\affil[4]{National Parks and Wildlife Service}%
\affil[5]{Research Centre for Eco-Environmental Sciences}%
\affil[6]{University of Saskatchewan}%


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  \date{May 25, 2024}


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\begin{abstract}
1. Researchers generally ascribe demographic drivers in a single or few
sub-populations and presume they are representative. With this
information, practitioners implement blanket conservation measures
across metapopulations to reverse declines. However, such approaches may
not be appropriate in circumstances where sub-populations are
spatiotemporally segregated and exposed to different environmental
variation. 2. The Greenland White-fronted Goose Anser albifrons
flavirostris is an Arctic-nesting migrant that largely comprises two
sub-populations (delineated by northerly and southerly breeding areas in
west Greenland). The metapopulation has declined since 1999 but this
trend is only mirrored in one sub-population and the causes of this
disparity are unclear. Here we compare the drivers and trends of
productivity in both sub-populations using population- and
individual-level analysis. 3. We examined how temperature and
precipitation influenced population-level reproductive success and
whether there was a change in the relationship when metapopulation
decline commenced. In addition we used biologging devices to reconstruct
incubation events and modelled how phenology and environmental
conditions influenced individual-level nest survival. 4. Correlations
between reproductive success and temperature/precipitation on the
breeding grounds have weakened for both sub-populations. This has
resulted in lower reproductive success for the northerly, but not
southerly breeding sub-population, which at the individual-level appears
to be driven by lower in nest survival. Earlier breeding ground arrival
and less precipitation during incubation increased nest survival in the
northerly breeding population, while no factors examined were important
for the southerly breeding sub-population. This suggests reproductive
success is now driven by different factor(s) in the two sub-populations.
5. Demographic rates and their environmental drivers differ between the
sub-populations examined here and consequently we encourage further
decomposition of demography within metapopulations. This is important
for conservation practitioners to consider as bespoke conservation
strategies, targeting different limiting factors, may be required for
different sub-population.%
\end{abstract}%



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\verb`Metapop demography Eco Evo INITIAL SUB.docx`  available at \url{https://authorea.com/users/574634/articles/618299-differing-drivers-of-decline-within-a-metapopulation-has-implications-for-future-conservation}

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