Conclusion
Based on recommendations of an international workshop of SDM experts, we
have outlined potential sources of uncertainty linked to the various
stages of analysis needed to complete an SDM projection into future
climates (Table 2). This begins with the need to identify sources of
uncertainty during goal setting and at the onset of an analysis
(guidelines #1 and 2), while selecting relevant data sources
(guidelines #3 and 4), throughout model building and evaluation
(guideline #5), right through uncertainty estimation and the
interpretation of results (guidelines #6-8), and finally, during the
communication of results (guidelines #9 and 10).
Through the application of SDM outputs, researchers and end users may
identify important data gaps or other elements that need to be
reassessed for clarity; this feedback can lead to iterative improvement
of both the analytical process and resulting outputs. The need to build
a community of practice that includes a diversity of perspectives and
skills for projecting marine species distributions is a challenge and a
gap. Partnerships between scientists, practitioners, and managers are
necessary to evaluate approaches that can lead to clear and consistent
standards and science advice to support a variety of marine spatial
planning decisions now and in the years to come.
Many ecosystems have species and environmental data shortfalls that will
limit a modeler’s ability to minimize some sources of uncertainty in SDM
projections. For example, there are currently few datasets available of
downscaled, high-resolution climate variables for marine regions and no
coordinated global effort to develop them. However, even in the absence
of such data, these guidelines provide practical steps for identifying
the relevant sources of uncertainty, quantifying their magnitude, and
communicating their effects. Following these guidelines will help
practitioners to identify areas of higher confidence where species
distributions are not expected to change. SDM projections may represent
the best available knowledge to inform management strategies; thus, it
is essential to acknowledge and report on uncertainty to avoid poor
management decisions. By following the guidelines laid out in this
review and communicating the decisions that were made throughout the
analysis process, SDM projections can be informative to researchers,
managers, and policy makers interested in planning for a changing and
uncertain future climate.