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\begin{document}

\title{Robust uncertainty quantification of the volume of tsunami ionospheric
holes for the 2011 Tohoku-Oki Earthquake: towards low-cost
satellite-based tsunami warning systems}



\author[1,1]{Ryuichi Kanai}%
\author[1,1]{Serge Guillas}%
\author[2,2]{Toshiyasu Nagao}%
\author[3,3]{Masashi Kamogawa}%
\author[1,1]{Alan Smith}%
\affil[1]{University College London}%
\affil[2]{Tokai University}%
\affil[3]{University of Shizuoka}%


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  \date{June 04, 2024}


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\begin{abstract}
We develop a new method to analyze the total electron content (TEC)
depression in the ionosphere after a tsunami occurrence. We employ
Gaussian process regression to accurately estimate the TEC disturbance
every 30 s using satellite observations from the GNSS network, even over
regions without measurements. We face multiple challenges. First, the
impact of the acoustic wave generated by a tsunami onto TEC levels is
non-linear and anisotropic. Second, observation points are moving.
Nevertheless, our method always computes these volumes, along with
estimated uncertainties, when applied to the 2011 Tohoku-Oki Earthquake,
even with random selections of only 5\% of the 1,000 GPS Earth
Observation Network System receivers considered here over Japan. The
method can warn of a tsunami event within 15 minutes of the earthquake,
at high levels of confidence, even with a sparse receiver network.
Hence, it is potentially applicable worldwide using the existing GNSS
network.%
\end{abstract}%



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