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\begin{document}

\title{Projected Antarctic extreme heat events in a warming world}



\author[1]{Ariel Lena Morrison}%
\author[1]{Kyle Benjamin Heyblom}%
\author[1]{Hansi Alice Singh}%
\author[2]{Philip J. Rasch}%
\affil[1]{University of Victoria}%
\affil[2]{Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (DOE)}%


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  \date{May 22, 2024}


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\begin{abstract}
As global temperatures increase, Antarctica is likely to experience
increased frequency, duration, and intensity of extreme temperature
events. Here we investigate how the characteristics of summer extreme
temperature events - heatwaves and incidence of melt days - may change
over Antarctica using daily historical and SSP5-8.5 Coupled Model
Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) output from 1950-2099. CMIP6
models robustly project that Antarctica's lowest elevation regions and
the West Antarctic ice sheet will reach 0C for an average of 6-12 days
during summer by 2099. Modelled summer heatwaves become more intense
across the entire continent, but less frequent and shorter everywhere
except the East Antarctic Plateau due to declining temperature
variability as surface temperatures approach the melting point of ice.
Our results imply that the increasing frequency of 0C days and greater
heatwave intensity will contribute to increasing ice sheet surface melt
and accelerating global sea level rise over the coming century.%
\end{abstract}%



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