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\begin{document}

\title{Quantifying the effect of ICME removal and observation age for in situ
solar wind data assimilation}



\author[1]{Harriet Turner}%
\author[1]{Mathew J Owens}%
\author[1]{Matthew Simon Lang}%
\author[2]{Siegfried Gonzi}%
\author[3]{Pete Riley}%
\affil[1]{University of Reading}%
\affil[2]{UK Met Office}%
\affil[3]{Predictive Science Inc.}%


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  \date{May 23, 2024}


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\begin{abstract}
Accurate space weather forecasting requires advanced knowledge of the
solar wind conditions in near-Earth space. Data assimilation (DA)
combines model output and observations to find an optimum estimation of
reality and has led to large advances in terrestrial weather
forecasting. It is now being applied to space weather forecasting. Here,
we use solar wind DA with in-situ observations to reconstruct solar wind
speed in the ecliptic plane between 30 solar radii and Earth's orbital
radius. This is used to provide solar wind speed hindcasts. Here, we
assimilate observations from the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory
(STEREO) and the near-Earth dataset, OMNI. Analysis of two periods of
time, one in solar minimum and one in solar maximum, reveals that
assimilating observations from multiple spacecraft provides a more
accurate forecast than using any one spacecraft individually. The age of
the observations also has a significant impact on forecast error,
whereby the mean absolute error (MAE) sharply increases by up to 23\%
when the forecast lead time first exceeds the corotation time associated
with the longitudinal separation between the observing spacecraft and
the forecast location. It was also found that removing coronal mass
ejections from the DA input and verification time series reduces the
forecast MAE by up to 10\% as it removes false streams from the forecast
time series. This work highlights the importance of an L5 space weather
monitoring mission for near-Earth solar wind forecasting and suggests
that an additional mission to L4 would further improve future solar wind
DA forecasting capabilities.%
\end{abstract}%



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