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\begin{document}

\title{How does the CMIP6 ensemble change the picture for European climate
projections?}



\author[1]{Tamzin Emily Palmer}%
\author[1]{Ben Booth}%
\author[2]{Carol Frances McSweeney}%
\affil[1]{Met Office}%
\affil[2]{Met Office Hadley Centre}%


\vspace{-1em}



  
  \date{May 25, 2024}


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\begin{abstract}
Reliable climate projections are essential for adaptation and mitigation
planning. We compare CMIP6 projections for temperature and precipitation
to CMIP5 for northern Europe, central Europe and the Mediterranean. The
CMIP6 ensemble shows an increased projected summer warming compared to
CMIP5. Central Europe was also found to have a stronger drying trend in
the summer months in CMIP6. We show that warmer projected summer
temperatures are largely driven by CMIP6 sampling higher global climate
sensitivities, with broadly similar regional responses to these. For
those interested in central estimates of European changes, CMIP6 does
not change the existing CMIP5 picture but better samples higher end
change for more risk adverse users. However, regional sensitivity is
important in central Europe where it accounts for roughly
40\$\textbackslash{}\%\$ of the differences between ensembles in
projected regional temperature. This analysis raises an important
question about whether CMIP6 can be considered to supersede CMIP5, or
supplement it%
\end{abstract}%



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