\documentclass[10pt]{article}

\usepackage{fullpage}
\usepackage{setspace}
\usepackage{parskip}
\usepackage{titlesec}
\usepackage[section]{placeins}
\usepackage{xcolor}
\usepackage{breakcites}
\usepackage{lineno}
\usepackage{hyphenat}





\PassOptionsToPackage{hyphens}{url}
\usepackage[colorlinks = true,
            linkcolor = blue,
            urlcolor  = blue,
            citecolor = blue,
            anchorcolor = blue]{hyperref}
\usepackage{etoolbox}
\makeatletter
\patchcmd\@combinedblfloats{\box\@outputbox}{\unvbox\@outputbox}{}{%
  \errmessage{\noexpand\@combinedblfloats could not be patched}%
}%
\makeatother


\usepackage{natbib}




\renewenvironment{abstract}
  {{\bfseries\noindent{\abstractname}\par\nobreak}\footnotesize}
  {\bigskip}

\titlespacing{\section}{0pt}{*3}{*1}
\titlespacing{\subsection}{0pt}{*2}{*0.5}
\titlespacing{\subsubsection}{0pt}{*1.5}{0pt}


\usepackage{authblk}


\usepackage{graphicx}
\usepackage[space]{grffile}
\usepackage{latexsym}
\usepackage{textcomp}
\usepackage{longtable}
\usepackage{tabulary}
\usepackage{booktabs,array,multirow}
\usepackage{amsfonts,amsmath,amssymb}
\providecommand\citet{\cite}
\providecommand\citep{\cite}
\providecommand\citealt{\cite}
% You can conditionalize code for latexml or normal latex using this.
\newif\iflatexml\latexmlfalse
\providecommand{\tightlist}{\setlength{\itemsep}{0pt}\setlength{\parskip}{0pt}}%

\AtBeginDocument{\DeclareGraphicsExtensions{.pdf,.PDF,.eps,.EPS,.png,.PNG,.tif,.TIF,.jpg,.JPG,.jpeg,.JPEG}}

\usepackage[utf8]{inputenc}
\usepackage[english]{babel}



\usepackage{float}








\begin{document}

\title{A Global Set of Subduction Zone Earthquake Scenarios and Recurrence
Intervals Inferred From Geodetically Constrained Block Models of
Interseismic Coupling Distributions}



\author[1]{Shannon Graham}%
\author[2]{John P. Loveless}%
\author[3]{Brendan J Meade}%
\affil[1]{The College of New Jersey}%
\affil[2]{Smith College}%
\affil[3]{Harvard University}%


\vspace{-1em}



  
  \date{May 22, 2024}


\begingroup
\let\center\flushleft
\let\endcenter\endflushleft
\maketitle
\endgroup





\selectlanguage{english}
\begin{abstract}
The past 100 years have seen the occurrence of five Mw\textgreater{} 9
earthquakes and 94 Mw\textgreater{} 8 earthquakes. Here we assess the
potential for future great earthquakes using inferences of interseismic
subduction zone coupling from a global block model incorporating both
tectonic plate motions and earthquake cycle effects. Interseismic
earthquake cycle effects are represented using a first-order quasistatic
elastic approximation and include \textasciitilde{}10\^{}7 km\^{}2 of
interacting fault system area across the globe. We use estimated spatial
variations in decadal-duration coupling at 15 subduction zones and the
Himalayan range front to estimate the locations and magnitudes of
potential seismic events using empirical scaling relationships relating
rupture area to moment magnitude. As threshold coupling values increase,
estimates of potential earthquake magnitudes decrease, but the total
number of large earthquakes varies non-monotonically. These rupture
scenarios include as many as 14 recent or potential Mw\textgreater{}9
earthquakes globally and up to 18 distinct Mw\textgreater{} 7 events
associated with a single subduction zone (South America). We also
combine estimated slip deficit rates and potential event magnitudes to
calculate recurrence intervals for large earthquake scenarios, finding
that almost all potential earthquakes have a recurrence time of less
than 1,000 years.%
\end{abstract}%



\sloppy




\selectlanguage{english}
\FloatBarrier
\end{document}

