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\begin{document}

\title{Modulation of the Bifurcation in Radiative-Convective Equilibrium by
Gray-Zone Cloud and Turbulence Parameterizations}



\author[1]{Xiaoming Shi}%
\author[2]{Yiyuan Fan}%
\affil[1]{Division of Environment \& Sustainability, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology}%
\affil[2]{Division of Environment and Sustainability, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology}%


\vspace{-1em}



  
  \date{May 27, 2024}


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\begin{abstract}
This study investigates the mechanisms by which small-scale turbulence
and cloud physics determine the organization of large-scale convection
in radiative-convective equilibrium (RCE), an idealization of the
tropical atmosphere. Under uniform forcings similar to typical tropical
conditions, the atmosphere in RCE might spontaneously separate into dry
and moist regions on scales of 100-1000 km, with convective clouds
aggregating into a cluster in the latter. This phenomenon is known as
convective self-aggregation. Herein, we demonstrate that subtle changes
in assumptions related to cloud physics and turbulence on scales of
\textasciitilde{}1 km can dictate the emergence or suppression of
convective self-aggregation, resulting from a bifurcation of the
dynamical system. The bifurcation occurs when a small dry patch forms in
the domain and is sustained because it contributes to negative effective
diffusivity of the circulation. Cloud-radiation feedbacks and turbulence
circulation interactions govern the formation of such dry patches,
thereby modulating the bifurcation. This sensitive dependence on subgrid
process models might be a fundamental barrier to climate predictability
in light of inherent uncertainties in microscale processes. Because
without the capability to include exact representations of those
processes in climate models, slight differences in the different
approximations used by modelers can lead to qualitative changes in
climate predictions, at least for some processes.%
\end{abstract}%



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