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\begin{document}

\title{Arctic sea ice variability during the Instrumental Era}



\author[1]{M. Kathleen Brennan}%
\author[1]{Gregory J. Hakim}%
\author[1]{Edward Blanchard-Wrigglesworth}%
\affil[1]{University of Washington}%


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  \date{June 05, 2024}


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\begin{abstract}
Arctic sea-ice extent (SIE) has declined drastically in recent decades,
yet its evolution prior to the satellite era is highly uncertain.
Studies using SIE observations find little variability prior to the
1970s; however, these reconstructions are based on limited data,
especially prior to the 1950s. We use ensemble Kalman filter data
assimilation of surface air temperature observations with Last
Millennium climate model simulations to create a fully gridded Arctic
sea-ice concentration reconstruction from 1850--2018, and investigate
the evolution of Arctic SIE during this period. We find a decline of
\textasciitilde{}1.25 x 106 km2 during the early 20th-century warming
(1910-1940). The 25-year trends during this period are
\textasciitilde{}33-38\% smaller than the satellite era (1979-2018) but
almost twice as large as previous estimates. Additionally we find that
variability of SIE on decadal timescales prior to satellite era is
\textasciitilde{}40\% greater than previously estimated.%
\end{abstract}%



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