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\begin{document}

\title{Inequalities in air pollution exposure and attributable mortality in a
low carbon future}



\author[1]{Carly Lauren Serena Reddington}%
\author[2]{Steven T Turnock}%
\author[1]{Luke Conibear}%
\author[3]{Piers Forster}%
\author[4]{Jason A. Lowe}%
\author[5]{Lea Berrang-Ford}%
\author[1]{Charlotte Weaver}%
\author[5]{Bianca Van Bavel}%
\author[6]{Huijuan Dong}%
\author[7]{Mohammad Reza Alizadeh}%
\author[3]{Steve Robert Arnold}%
\affil[1]{Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds}%
\affil[2]{Met Office Hadley Centre}%
\affil[3]{University of Leeds}%
\affil[4]{Met Office}%
\affil[5]{Priestly Centre for Climate Change, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK}%
\affil[6]{School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Shanghai Jiao Tong University}%
\affil[7]{McGill University}%


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  \date{May 27, 2024}


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\begin{abstract}
Understanding the costs and benefits of climate change mitigation and
adaptation options is crucial to justify and prioritise future
decarbonisation pathways to achieve net zero. Here, we quantified the
co-benefits of decarbonisation for air quality and public health under
scenarios that aim to limit end-of-century warming to 2\selectlanguage{ngerman}ºC and 1.5ºC. We
estimated the mortality burden attributable to ambient
PM\textsubscript{2.5} exposure using population attributable fractions
of relative risk, incorporating projected changes in population
demographics. We found that implementation of decarbonisation scenarios
could produce substantial global reductions in population exposure to
PM\textsubscript{2.5} pollution and associated premature mortality, with
maximum health benefits achieved in Asia around
mid-century.\textbf{~}The stringent 1.5ºC-compliant decarbonisation
scenario (SSP1-1.9) could reduce the PM\textsubscript{2.5}-attributable
mortality burden by 29\% in 2050 relative to the middle-of-the-road
scenario (SSP2-4.5), averting around 2.9M annual deaths worldwide. While
all income groups were found to benefit from improved air quality
through decarbonisation, the smallest health benefits are experienced by
the low-income population. The disparity in PM\textsubscript{2.5}
exposure across income groups is projected to reduce by 2100, but a 30\%
disparity between high- and low- income groups persists even in the
strongest mitigation scenario. Further, without additional and targeted
air quality measures, low- and lower-middle-income populations
(predominantly in Africa and Asia) will continue to experience
PM\textsubscript{2.5} exposures that are over three times the World
Health Organization (WHO) Air Quality Guideline.%
\end{abstract}\selectlanguage{ngerman}%



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