Understanding Uncertainty in Ecological Forecasts (Forecasts &
Uncertainty)
This module introduces students to concepts and methods for quantifying
forecast uncertainty, which entails identifying the range of possible
future model outcomes (Dietze 2017b). Students build simple linear
models to forecast water temperature at a NEON lake site of their choice
and calculate the uncertainty associated with the forecasts. Seehttp://module6.macrosystemseddie.org for a detailed description
of the module; module code for the R Shiny application and RMarkdown as
well as instructor materials are also published with DOIs in Moore et
al. (2023b), Moore et al. (2023c), and Moore et al. (2023a),
respectively.