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\begin{document}

\title{Data assimilation for fault slip monitoring and short-term prediction of
slow slip events: an application to the 2010 long-term slow slip event
in the Bungo Channel}



\author[1]{Masayuki Kano}%
\author[1]{Yusuke Tanaka}%
\author[2]{Daisuke Sato}%
\author[2]{Takeshi Iinuma}%
\author[2]{Takane Hori}%
\affil[1]{Tohoku University}%
\affil[2]{Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology}%


\vspace{-1em}



  
  \date{May 27, 2024}


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\begin{abstract}
Monitoring and predicting fault slip behaviors in subduction zones are
essential for understanding earthquake cycles and assessing future
earthquake potential. We developed a data assimilation (DA) method for
fault slip monitoring and short-term prediction of slow slip events
(SSEs), which was applied to the 2010 Bungo Channel SSE in southwest
Japan. The observed geodetic data were quantitatively explained using a
physics-based model with DA. We investigated short-term predictability
by assimilating observation data with limited periods. Without prior
constraint on fault slip style, observations solely during slip
acceleration predicted the occurrence of a fast slip; however, the
inclusion of slip deceleration data successfully predicted a slow
transient slip. With prior constraint to exclude unstable slip, the
assimilation of data after the SSE occurrence predicted a slow transient
slip. This study provided a tool using DA for fault slip monitoring and
prediction based on real observation data.%
\end{abstract}%



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