In 2021, Nepal underwent its most severe fire season, resulting in a
fire rate 10 times greater than the historical average in many areas of
the country with record-high air pollution levels. Leading the fire
outbreaks in March of 2021, the country experienced an extreme
precipitation deficit and drought in the post-monsoon season. Current
community forest management practices and resultant forest growth may
have exacerbated the conflagration, but an analysis using observational,
reanalysis, and climate model ensemble data indicates that climate
variability and climate change induced severe drought conditions that
resulted in the anomalous fire season. While warning of the likely
re-occurrence of extremely active fire seasons in Nepal through the end
of the 21st century, this research also proposes a statistical model for
sub-seasonal prediction that could help mitigate the projected effects
of the drought-fire paradigm.