Figure 4. Differences between EBM2 emulations and AOGCM temperature projections. Rows show results for four calibrations of EBM2. Row B uses λ and ε parameter values which minimize the RMSE for temperatures during 1850-2100. Similarly, row C uses parameter values which minimize the RMSE during 1850-2014. In row D, EBM2 is calibrated to minimize the RMSE during 1850-2100 for SSP2-4.5 and this calibration is used to emulate SSP2-4.5-GHG and SSP2-4.5-AER. For plotting, annual means are smoothed using a 21-year moving average.