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\begin{document}

\title{Physical and observational constraints on the anvil cloud area feedback}



\author[1]{Brett McKim}%
\author[2]{Sandrine Bony}%
\author[2]{Jean-Louis Dufresne}%
\affil[1]{Affiliation not available}%
\affil[2]{LMD/IPSL, Sorbonne Université, CNRS}%


\vspace{-1em}



  
  \date{June 11, 2024}


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\begin{abstract}
Changes in anvil clouds with warming remain a leading source of
uncertainty in estimating the Earth's climate sensitivity. Here, we
develop a novel feedback analysis that decomposes changes in anvil
clouds and creates testable hypotheses for refining their proposed
uncertainty ranges with observations and theory. To carry out this
storyline approach, we derive a simple but quantitative expression for
the anvil area feedback, which is shown to depend on the present day,
measurable cloud radiative effects and the fractional change in anvil
area with warming. Satellite observations suggest an anvil cloud
radiative effect of about~\(\pm\)1 Wm\textsuperscript{-2},
which requires the fractional change in anvil area to be about
~\(\mp\)50 \% K\textsuperscript{-1} to produce a feedback
equal to the current best estimate of its lower bound. We use theory and
observations to show that the change in anvil area is closer to about
-4\textbackslash{}\% K\textsuperscript{-1}. This constrains the area
feedback and leads to our new estimate of 0.02~\(\pm\) 0.07
Wm\textsuperscript{-2} K\textsubscript{}\textsuperscript{-1} which is
many times weaker and more constrained than the overall anvil cloud
feedback. In comparison, we show the anvil cloudy albedo feedback to be
much less constrained, both theoretically and observationally, and thus
to embody the uncertainty that poses an obstacle for bounding the
Earth's climate sensitivity.~%
\end{abstract}%



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