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\begin{document}

\title{Seasonal tidewater glacier terminus oscillations bias multi-decadal
projections of ice mass change}



\author[1]{Denis Felikson}%
\author[2]{Sophie Nowicki}%
\author[3]{Isabel J Nias}%
\author[4]{Mathieu Morlighem}%
\author[5]{Helene Seroussi}%
\affil[1]{NASA Goddard Space Flight Center}%
\affil[2]{University at Buffalo}%
\affil[3]{University of Liverpool}%
\affil[4]{University of California, Irvine}%
\affil[5]{Jet Propulsion Laboratory}%


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  \date{May 24, 2024}


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\begin{abstract}
Numerical, process-based simulations of tidewater glacier evolution are
necessary to project future sea-level change under various climate
scenarios. Previous work has shown that nonlinearities in tidewater
glacier and ice stream dynamics can lead to biases in simulated ice mass
change in the presence of noisy forcings. Ice sheet modeling projections
that will be used in the upcoming IPCC Assessment Report 6 (AR6) utilize
atmospheric and oceanic forcings at annual temporal resolution, omitting
any higher frequency forcings. Here, we quantify the effect of seasonal
(\textless{}1 year) tidewater glacier terminus oscillations on
decadal-scale (30 year) mass change. We use an idealized geometry to
mimic realistic tidewater glacier geometries, and investigate the impact
of the magnitude of seasonal oscillations, bed slope at the glacier
terminus, and basal friction law. We find that omitting seasonal
terminus motion results in biased mass change projections, with up to an
18\% overestimate of mass loss when seasonality is neglected. The bias
is most sensitive to the magnitude of the seasonal terminus oscillations
and exhibits very little sensitivity to choice of friction law. Our
results show that including seasonality is required to eliminate a
potential bias in ice sheet mass change projections. In order to achieve
this, seasonality in atmospheric and oceanic forcings must be adequately
represented and observations of seasonal terminus positions and
tidewater glacier thickness changes must be acquired to evaluate
numerical models.%
\end{abstract}%



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