We use inverse modelling to infer the distribution and drivers of community-integrated zooplankton grazing dynamics based on the skill with which different grazing formulations recreate the satellite-observed seasonal cycle in phytoplankton biomass. We find that oligotrophic and eutrophic biomes require more and less efficient grazing dynamics, respectively. This is characteristic of micro- and mesozooplankton, respectively, and leads to a strong sigmoidal relationship between observed mean-annual phytoplankton biomass and the optimal grazing parameterization required to simulate its seasonal cycle. Globally, we find Type III rather than Type II functional response curves consistently exhibit higher skill. These new observationally-based distributions can help constrain, validate and develop next-generation biogeochemical models.

Meridional eddy transport across the Antarctic Circumpolar Current is an essential component of the global meridional overturning circulation and the transport of climate relevant tracers. Challenges in comparing model and observational estimates of the transport arise from varying methodologies describing ‘eddy’ processes. We reconcile the approach used in shipboard surveys of eddies, complemented by satellite eddy tracking, with Reynolds decomposition applied to model outputs. This allows us to estimate the fraction of total meridional tracer transport attributed to coherent eddies in a global 0.1$^\circ$ ocean model. The model realistically simulates observed eddy kinetic energy and three-dimensional characteristics, particularly in representing an observed cyclonic eddy near 150 \degrees E, a hotspot for poleward heat flux. Annual meridional transports due to coherent eddies crossing the Subantarctic Front are estimated by vertically and radially integrating the tracer contents of all eddies. Notably, only cyclonic eddies moving equatorward across the Subantarctic Front contribute to the coherent eddy transport, with no anticyclonic eddies found to cross the front poleward in this region. Applying Reynolds decomposition, our study reveals predominantly poleward meridional transports due to all transient processes in a standing meander, particularly between the northern and southern branches of the Subantarctic Front. Coherent, long-lived eddies tracked from satellite data contribute less than 20\% to transient poleward heat transport, and equatorward nitrate transport in the model. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the integrated surface elevation of mesoscale eddies serves as a reliable proxy for inferring subsurface eddy content.

We examine how zooplankton influence phytoplankton bloom phenology from the top-down, then use inverse modelling to infer the distribution and drivers of mean community zooplankton grazing dynamics based on the skill with which different simulated grazing formulations are able to recreate the observed seasonal cycle in phytoplankton biomass. We find that oligotrophic (eutrophic) biomes require more (less) efficient grazing dynamics, characteristic of micro- (meso-) zooplankton, leading to a strong relationship between the observed mean annual phytoplankton concentration in a region and the optimal grazing parameterization required to simulate it’s observed phenology. Across the globe, we found that a type III functional response consistently exhibits more skill than a type II response, suggesting the mean dynamics of a coarse model grid-cell should offer stability and prey refuge at low biomass concentrations. These new observationally-based global distributions will be invaluable to help constrain, validate and develop next generation of biogeochemical models.

The Southern Ocean (SO) provides the largest oceanic sink of carbon. Observational datasets highlight decadal-scale changes in SO CO2 uptake, but the processes leading to this decadal-scale variability remain debated. Here, using an eddy-permitting ocean, sea-ice, carbon cycle model, we explore the impact of changes in Southern Hemisphere (SH) westerlies on contemporary (i.e. total), anthropogenic and natural CO2 fluxes using idealised sensitivity experiments as well as an interannually varying forced (IAF) experiment covering the years 1948 to 2007. We find that a strengthening of the SH westerlies reduces the contemporary CO2 uptake by leading to a high southern latitude natural CO2 outgassing. The enhanced SO upwelling and associated increase in Antarctic Bottom Water decrease the carbon content at depth in the SO, and increase the transport of carbon-rich waters to the surface. A poleward shift of the westerlies particularly enhances the CO2 outgassing south of 60S, while inducing an asymmetrical DIC response between high and mid southern latitudes. Changes in the SH westerlies in the 20th century in the IAF experiment lead to decadal-scale variability in both natural and contemporary CO2 fluxes. The ~10% strengthening of the SH westerlies since the 1980s led to a 0.016 GtC/yr^2 decrease in natural CO2 uptake, while the anthropogenic CO2 uptake increased at a similar rate, thus leading to a stagnation of the total SO CO2 uptake. The projected poleward strengthening of the SH westerlies over the coming century will thus reduce the capability of the SO to mitigate the increase in atmospheric CO2.