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\begin{document}

\title{Reduced tropical climate land area under global warming}



\author[1]{Ori Adam}%
\author[1]{Noga Liberty-Levi}%
\author[2]{Michael Byrne}%
\author[3]{Thomas Birner}%
\affil[1]{Hebrew University}%
\affil[2]{university Saint Andrews}%
\affil[3]{Ludwig-Maximilians University}%


\vspace{-1em}



  
  \date{May 24, 2024}


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\begin{abstract}
Regions along the edges of the tropics host vast populations and
ecosystems which are sensitive to climate change. Here we examine the
extent of tropical climate land areas in the ERA5 and MERRA-2 reanalyses
in high-emission scenarios of 45 models participating in phases 5 and 6
of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5/6). Based on the
definition of tropical climate land areas as regions where the diurnal
temperature range exceeds the seasonal temperature range, we find a net
reduction of tropical land area with global warming. This change is
primarily due to an increased seasonal temperature range, driven by
enhanced summer warming. The reduction in tropical land area is
consistent with the expansion of the subtropical descending zones and
with the expansion of drylands with global warming. However, the
particular contributions of dynamic and thermodynamic processes are not
clear.%
\end{abstract}%



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