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\begin{document}

\title{Economic Benefits of Forecast Informed Reservoir Operations (FIRO): Lake
Mendocino Case-Study and Transferable Decision Support Tool}



\author[1]{Tess Hubbard}%
\affil[1]{Eastern Research Group, Inc.}%


\vspace{-1em}



  
  \date{May 26, 2024}


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\begin{abstract}
Forecast-Informed Reservoir Operations (FIRO) enables modern weather
forecasting technology to be incorporated into Water Control Plans. FIRO
provides water managers with more lead time to selectively retain or
release water from reservoirs in anticipation of droughts or floods.
Managing reservoirs with improved forecasts can optimize benefits such
as water supply and fisheries without impairing flood risk management.
FIRO viability at Lake Mendocino was assessed according to five
management scenarios and evaluated using 16 metrics. Through detailed
hydrologic engineering analysis, the difference in water availability
was calculated comparing baseline operations and the FIRO alternatives.
Based on the evaluation criteria and implementation considerations, the
Modified Hybrid alternative was selected and Ensemble Forecast
Operations was designated as a reach goal. The benefits assessment
considered the water availability difference between baseline and FIRO
operations with respect to recreation, hydropower, municipal and
industrial water supply, agricultural water supply, and fisheries. To
calculate the recreation benefit, daily use values were applied to
estimated recreational activity at Lake Mendocino. Hydropower benefit
was calculated by applying regional retail electricity prices to the
increased electricity generated under FIRO operations. Municipal and
industrial water supply benefit was determined by quantifying changes in
consumer surplus due to an increase in water reliability. Changes in
consumer surplus were determined by estimating demand curves for water
usage and using price elasticity of demand. Agricultural water supply
benefits were calculated as annual avoided losses and used the residual
imputation method. The least-cost method was used to monetize fisheries
benefit of FIRO based on changes in downstream flow and water
temperature. Results are being integrated into the Lake Mendocino FIRO
Final Viability Assessment, which will be finalized by December 2020. A
decision support tool (DST) will allow users to input data from other
FIRO projects to predict benefits and inform tradeoff decisions. This
presentation will share results of the economic assessment, preview the
DST, and describe a transferability test case at Prosser Reservoir in
the Truckee River Basin.%
\end{abstract}%



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