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\begin{document}

\title{Statistical Power of Federal Environmental Justice Analyses: False
negative errors and implications for American Indian populations}



\author[1]{Ryan Emanuel}%
\author[1]{Louie Rivers}%
\author[1]{Gary Blank}%
\affil[1]{North Carolina State University Raleigh}%


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  \date{May 21, 2024}


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\begin{abstract}
Federal agencies in the US must evaluate the environmental justice
implications of regulatory actions. Environmental justice analyses
frequently use demographic tests to determine whether regulated projects
will disproportionately impact vulnerable communities, including
American Indian communities. Demographic tests typically yield negative
results, which are often cited as evidence of no environmental justice
implications. However, susceptibility of demographic tests to false
negative errors is unknown. In these cases, false negative errors occur
when a test cannot identify a vulnerable population concentrated
disproportionately within a project study area. We developed a technique
to evaluate the susceptibility of demographic tests to false negative
errors. We used the technique to assess a test commonly used by
regulators to permit fossil fuel pipelines. The Atlantic Coast Pipeline
served as a case study. The demographic test did not identify
disproportionately large American Indian populations under any realistic
scenario, a false negative error rate of 100\%. In our case study, the
test did not detect a disproportionately large American Indian
population until the study area contained a four times greater fraction
of American Indians than the reference area. We extend the results to
study the test's performance throughout the US. The test's inability to
detect disproportionately large American Indian populations calls into
question the validity of negative results and the general ability of the
test to inform conclusions about environmental justice or
sustainability. We recommend abandoning the test in favor of more
rigorous methods.%
\end{abstract}%



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