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\begin{document}

\title{It's Not Just About Sea Surface Temperature: Synthesizing Information to
Communicate Climate Change Projections for European Seas}



\author[1]{Susan Kay}%
\affil[1]{Plymouth Marine Laboratory}%


\vspace{-1em}



  
  \date{May 25, 2024}


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\begin{abstract}
Environmental change in coastal and shelf seas provides a challenge to
fisheries and aquaculture worldwide. Coupled physical-biogeochemical
models can be used to create projections of environmental conditions
under different climate scenarios, but models of this type produce a
wealth of information covering multiple environmental variables and a
range of timescales. It is challenging to synthesize that information
into a form which can be quickly and effectively conveyed to
stakeholders. I describe how a range of approaches has been used to
analyse projections of environmental conditions in European seas,
created using a regional model with a resolution of 0.1 degrees. The
projections run from the present-day to 2099 and include temperature,
primary production, plankton biomass, pH and nutrient and oxygen
concentrations for moderate and high carbon concentration scenarios. A
range of formats that convey the scale and extent of projected change in
the North East Atlantic, the North Sea and the Mediterranean, are
included, aiming for simple, visual communication that goes beyond maps
of changing sea surface temperature. Colour-coded tables show at a
glance which variables are projected to show significant change at a
range of locations. Time series and maps are used together to give
complementary information. Contours show geographical shifts in
conditions. In each case the content can be adjusted to fit the
interests of different stakeholder groups: examples from fisheries and
aquaculture are included here.%
\end{abstract}%



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