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\begin{document}

\title{The role of the topset slope in autogenically controlling avulsion and
bifurcation timescales in river deltas}



\author[1]{Octria Adi Prasojo}%
\author[2]{Trevor B. Hoey}%
\author[1]{Amanda Owen}%
\author[1]{Richard David Williams}%
\affil[1]{University of Glasgow}%
\affil[2]{Brunel University London}%


\vspace{-1em}



  
  \date{May 22, 2024}


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\selectlanguage{english}
\begin{abstract}
River deltas are under external stress from sea-level rise, subsidence,
and decreases in sediment and water discharges caused by anthropogenic
activity. Naturally, delta channels respond to these stressors by
avulsing and bifurcating. Avulsion involves an abrupt change of channel
course that changes the locus of sediment deposition. Bifurcation occurs
in the most seaward parts of river deltas where channels divide due to
mouth bar deposition. However, how avulsion (top-down) and bifurcation
(bottom-up) processes interact in river deltas is poorly understood. We
conducted a suite of morphodynamic numerical model experiments using six
scenarios with different slopes, selected within the range observed in
natural deltas, upstream from the delta apex. The experiments allow us
to understand the internal (autogenic) interaction of avulsion and
bifurcation in the absence of external (allogenic) forcing. We find that
topset slope (\emph{S\textsubscript{topset}}) primarily controls the
avulsion timescale (\emph{T\textsubscript{a}}) with
\emph{T\textsubscript{a}} =
0.3\emph{S\textsubscript{topset}}\textsuperscript{-1.18}
(\emph{R\textsuperscript{2}} = 69\%; \emph{p} \textless{} 0.05).
Avulsion and bifurcation are shown to occur simultaneously based on the
non-unimodal distribution of dimensionless island sizes created in our
model, even though these are mechanistically different processes.
Comparing our findings to natural deltas, we find consistent avulsion
timescale-topset slope
(\emph{T\textsubscript{a}-S\textsubscript{topset}}) relationships. Our
findings show how the delta topset slope serves as the first order
control of the avulsion timescale, and how avulsion and bifurcation
interact throughout delta building processes. This interaction is
significant due to their direct impact on coastal and inland hazards
that arise from rapid geomorphic change and flooding on densely
populated deltas.%
\end{abstract}%



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\end{document}

