Significance statement
When weather conditions shift abruptly after a long period of the same
pattern – for example, from a spell of abnormally mild temperatures to
extreme cold, or from a long dry period to a parade of storms – major
disruptions to ecosystems and human activities often ensue. These types
of shifts have recently been dubbed “weather whiplash” events. In this
study we propose and demonstrate a new approach to measuring the
frequency of these events based on continental-scale atmospheric regimes
and their transitions. While the frequency of these events in recent
decades has not changed substantially, our analysis of future model
projections indicates robust increases and decreases in certain
atmospheric patterns, particularly in those featuring an extremely warm
or cold Arctic.