Significance statement

When weather conditions shift abruptly after a long period of the same pattern – for example, from a spell of abnormally mild temperatures to extreme cold, or from a long dry period to a parade of storms – major disruptions to ecosystems and human activities often ensue. These types of shifts have recently been dubbed “weather whiplash” events. In this study we propose and demonstrate a new approach to measuring the frequency of these events based on continental-scale atmospheric regimes and their transitions. While the frequency of these events in recent decades has not changed substantially, our analysis of future model projections indicates robust increases and decreases in certain atmospheric patterns, particularly in those featuring an extremely warm or cold Arctic.