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\begin{document}

\title{Triggering of the 2012 Ahar-Varzaghan earthquake doublet (Mw6.5\&6.3) by
the Sahand Volcano and North Tabriz fault (NW-Iran); Implications on the
seismic hazard of Tabriz city}



\author[1]{Seyyedmaalek Momeni}%
\affil[1]{EPFL, Geo-Energy Lab – Gaznat Chair on Geo-Energy}%


\vspace{-1em}



  
  \date{May 22, 2024}


\begingroup
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\selectlanguage{english}
\begin{abstract}
Seismic history of the North Tabriz fault (NTF), the main active fault
of Northwestern Iran near Tabriz city, and its relation to the Sahand
active Volcano (SND), the second high mountain of the NW Iran, and to
the 11 August 2012 Ahar-Varzaghan earthquake doublet (Mw6.5\&6.3) (AVD),
is investigated. I infer that before AVD seismicity of the central
segment of NTF close to SND was very low compared to its neighbor
segments. Magmatic activities and thermal springs near central NTF close
to Bostan-Abad city and low-velocity anomalies reported beneath SND
toward NTF in tomography studies suggest that the existing heat due to
SND magma chamber has increased the pore-fluid pressure that overcomes
the effective normal stress on the central NTF, resulting in its creep
behaviour. Two peaks of cumulative scalar seismic moments of earthquakes
observed on both lobes of the creeping segment, confirming the strong
difference in the deformation rate between these segments. On 2012, AVD
struck in the 50 km North of NTF, in the same longitude range to SND and
with the same right-lateral strike-slip mechanism to 1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 NTF, as a result of partial
transfer of the right-lateral deformation of NW Iran toward the North of
NTF on the Ahar-Varzaghan fault system. A cumulative aseismic slip equal
to an Mw6.8 event is estimated for the creeping segment of NTF, posing
half of the 7mmy-1 geodetic deformation has happened in the creep mode.
This event has transferred a positive Coulomb stress field of
\textgreater{}1 bar on the AVD and triggered them. Also, the western and
eastern NTF segments received \textgreater{}4 bar of positive Coulomb
stresses from the creeping segment and are probable nucleation locations
for future earthquakes on NTF. The observed creep may be the reason for
the NTF segmentation during the 1721AD M7.6 and 1780 AD M7.4 historical
earthquakes.%
\end{abstract}%



\sloppy


\textbf{Triggering of the 2012 Ahar-Varzaghan earthquake doublet
(Mw6.5\&6.3) by the Sahand Volcano and North Tabriz fault (NW-Iran);
Implications on the seismic hazard of Tabriz city}

\textbf{Seyyedmaalek Momeni\textsuperscript{1,2*}}

1. EPFL Geo-Energy Lab -- Gaznat Chair on Geo-Energy, EPFL-ENAC-IIC-GEL,
Station 18, CH-1015, Lausanne, Switzerland.

2. International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP), Trieste, Italy.

\textbf{*} Corresponding author, E-mail: maalek.momeni@gmail.com

\textbf{Abstract}

Seismic history of the North Tabriz fault (NTF), the main active fault
of Northwestern Iran near Tabriz city, and its relation to the Sahand
active Volcano (SND), the second high mountain of the NW Iran, and to
the 11 August 2012 Ahar-Varzaghan earthquake doublet (Mw6.5\&6.3) (AVD),
is investigated. I infer that before AVD seismicity of the central
segment of NTF close to SND was very low compared to its neighbor
segments. Magmatic activities and thermal springs near central NTF close
to Bostan-Abad city and low-velocity anomalies reported beneath SND
toward NTF in tomography studies suggest that the existing heat due to
SND magma chamber has increased the pore-fluid pressure that overcomes
the effective normal stress on the central NTF, resulting in its creep
behaviour. Two peaks of cumulative scalar seismic moments of earthquakes
observed on both lobes of the creeping segment, confirming the strong
difference in the deformation rate between these segments. On 2012, AVD
struck in the 50 km North of NTF, in the same longitude range to SND and
with the same right-lateral strike-slip mechanism to NTF, as a result of
partial transfer of the right-lateral deformation of NW Iran toward the
North of NTF on the Ahar-Varzaghan fault system. A cumulative aseismic
slip equal to an Mw6.8 event is estimated for the creeping segment of
NTF, posing half of the 7mmy-1 geodetic deformation has happened in the
creep mode. This event has transferred a positive Coulomb stress field
of \textgreater{}1 bar on the AVD and triggered them. Also, the western
and eastern NTF segments received \textgreater{}4 bar of positive
Coulomb stresses from the creeping segment and are probable nucleation
locations for future earthquakes on NTF. The observed creep may be the
reason for the NTF segmentation during the 1721AD M7.6 and 1780 AD M7.4
historical earthquakes.

\textbf{Keywords:} Induced seismicity; aseismic deformation; pore-fluid
pressure; effective stress; volcano; triggering

\emph{1. Introduction}

On 11 August 2012, an earthquake doublet with Mw6.5 and Mw6.3 occurred
in NW Iran near the Ahar and Varzaghan cities (AVD), 40 km Northeast of
Tabriz city (TBZ), the fourth megacity of Iran with \textgreater{}2
million population. They located in 50 km North of Sahand Volcano (SND),
which situated 40 km Southeast of TBZ. AVD caused \textgreater{}300
fatalities. In terms of mechanism, the first mainshock exhibits an
almost pure right-lateral strike-slip faulting, and the second one had
two slip patches with right-lateral strike-slip and reverse mechanisms
(Fig. 1a, Momeni \& Tatar, 2018; Momeni et al, 2019). The first
mainshock produces almost 12 km of surface rupture. The mainshocks
mechanisms and their rupture geometries were almost the same to the
North Tabriz Fault (NTF), the main active fault of northwestern Iran,
that crosses just North of TBZ. Before AVD, the seismicity on the
Ahar-Varzaghan fault system was negligible, so that these events were a
surprise in that region.

\emph{Tectonic Settings}

NW of Iran is a part of Turkish-Iranian plateau, bounded by the Caucasus
Mountains to the North, Zagros Fold and thrust belt to the South, and
Talesh Mountains to the East. This region is under complex tectonics
which resulted in high deformation and seismic activity (Berberian and
Arshadi, 1976; Jackson, 1992; Ghods et al., 2015; Momeni \& Tatar, 2018)
(Fig. 1). The main tectonic regime is the oblique convergence of
Arabia-Eurasia with the current deformation rate of about 13--15 mmy-1,
at the longitude of 46.1 \selectlanguage{ngerman}°E (Vernant et al., 2004; Reilinger et al.,
2006). The Talesh Mountains on the eastern termination of the region is
either colliding to the relatively thick South Caspian sedimentary cover
(\selectlanguage{english}~20 km) (Zamani and Masson, 2014) or, the South Caspian crust is
under-thrusting westward beneath it (Jackson et al., 2002). Two
different northeastward and northwestward deformation directions are
observable in the GPS velocity vectors at the longitude of 44degE, which
suggest it as the western margin of the region (Momeni \& Tatar, 2018).

Earthquakes mechanisms (GCMT) and surface deformation studies (Reilinger
et al., 2006; Djamour et al., 2011) suggest the resulting deformation in
NW Iran is mainly the right-lateral strike-slip faulting on the W-NW
striking faults within the region. While thrust faulting is partitioned
to the North on the Great Caucasus (Jackson, 1992; McClusky et al.,
2000; Momeni \& Tatar, 2018). The two N-S to NE- SW (N018deg) shortening
and NW-SE (N287deg and N155deg) strike-slip deformation stress regimes were
obtained by Zamani and Masson, (2014). The first stress system developed
the three E-W striking fold and thrust belts, Arasbaran, Ghoshe-dagh and
Bozkosh mountain ranges. While the N-S striking structures like Talesh
mountains corresponds to the second stress system (Fig. 1a).

NTF with the main right-lateral strike-slip mechanism and deformation
rate of 7 +- 1 mmy\selectlanguage{english}-1 accommodates most of the deformation of the region
(Djamour et al., 2011). Rizza et al., (2013) estimated that the current
deformation rate has been mostly constant since late quaternary until
now (during the past 45 ka). However, they remarked a decrease in the
strike-slip deformation rates along the NTF from about 7 mmy\selectlanguage{english}-1 to 5
mmy\selectlanguage{english}-1 from the West to the East of 47deg longitude, and they relate it to
the fault orientation changes from about NW-SE to W-E (Djamour et al.,
2011; Rizza et al., 2013) (Fig. 2a). Later, Su et al., (2017) reported
subsidence in the closest GPS station to the Northeast SND near BA and
interpreted it as magmatic activities of Sahand.

A microseismicity study along the NTF using a local seismic network
confirmed the main shear deformation mechanism of NTF in the upper crust
(Moradi et al. 2011). On the western and eastern terminations of NTF,
the North Mishu Fault (NMF) and the South Bozkosh Fault (SBF) are the
two oblique reverse faults with right-lateral strike-slip components
that strike \textasciitilde{}E-W and dip to the South and North,
respectively. Solaymani Azad et al., (2015) called the NTF, NMF, and SBF
as Tabriz Fault System (TFS).

Before the occurrence of the 2012 earthquake doublet, the Ahar-Varzaghan
fault system has been in a long seismic quiescence (Momeni \& Tatar,
2018; Fig. 1a). However, field observations revealed the continuation of
fault to the both East and West of the ruptured segment during the 2012
AVD (e.g. Copley et al. 2013, Donner et al. 2015, Ghods et al. 2015).
The clear segmentation has been observed along this fault system with
different kinematics and without clear connections that suggest it as a
young fault system (Donner et al., 2015). The occurrence of the AVD
suggested that some of the shear strain of the region is not
compensating by the NTF, specifically at the longitudes east of 46degE
(Donner et al. 2015; Ghods et al. 2015).

Sahand volcano with 3707 m elevation is an isolated, extensively
distributed (\textasciitilde{}3000 km2 area) stratovolcanic complex
(Ghalamghash et al., 2019). Together with Sabalan and Saray, they are
three Late Miocene-Quaternary volcanoes that formed as results of the
collision between the Arabian and Eurasian plates along the Neo-Tethyan
suture zone in NW Iran. The formation of Neo-Sahand is estimated to ca.
600 to b173 ka (Ghalamghash et al., 2019). They mostly observed within
and outside of the widely eroded caldera margin. Neo-Sahand units
include basaltic andesitic to rhyolitic domes in the center of the
complex as well as small parasitic cones along with subvolcanic dikes
toward the northeast.

\emph{Historical earthquakes of NW Iran}

Historical seismicity is widely distributed in the region, and mostly on
the NTF and NMF. Tabriz city has been the capital of Iran and Azerbaijan
in the past. Several large destructive historical earthquakes
(magnitudes up to Ms=7.6) have reported for Tabriz (Ambraseys and
Melville, 1982; Berberian and Yeats, 1999). Most of them are related to
the activity of NTF (Fig. 1a). The last two M\textgreater{}7 destructive
historical earthquakes have occurred on 1721 AD and 1780 AD, that
ruptured more than 50 km of the southeastern and northwestern segments
of the NTF and caused over 40,000 and 200,000 fatalities, respectively
(Ambraseys and Melville, 1982; Berberian and Yeats, 1999; Momeni \&
Tatar, 2018).

Paleoseismological studies revealed at least three major (M\selectlanguage{english}~7.5)
historical earthquakes for the southeastern segment over the past 33.5
ka, including the 1721 AD M7.6--7.7 earthquake (Solaymani Azad et al.,
2015). On the other side, four historical earthquakes are reported for
the northwestern segment of the NTF during the past 3.6 ka, the most
recent being the Ms\selectlanguage{english}~7.4 1780 AD earthquake (Hessami Azar et al., 2003).
The estimated slip per event and slip rate on this segment are 4 +- 0.5 m
and 3.1--6.4 mmy\selectlanguage{english}-1, respectively, and the average recurrence interval of
large earthquakes on it is estimated in the range of 350 to 1430 years.

NMF and SBF also ruptured during historical earthquakes, the last two
being the 1786 AD Marand and 1593 AD Sarab earthquakes that suggest a
seismic migration from the southeast toward the northwest of TFS. They
also reveal earthquake clustering (e.g. Kagan and Jackson, 1991;
Berberian, 1997; Karakhanian et al., 2004) and interaction between fault
segments of the TFS (Solaymani Azad et al., 2015).

\emph{Instrumental earthquakes of NW Iran}

Mechanism of deformation strongly changes from the western Alborz to the
Iran-Turkey borders. The 1976 Mw7.0 Chalderan earthquake has occurred
near the borders of Iran with Turkey on the right-lateral strike-slip
Chalderan-Khoy fault that strikes E-W. While, the 1990 Mw7.4
Rudbar-Tarom earthquake on the western Alborz mountains has occurred on
a left-lateral strike-slip fault trending WNW- ESE (Momeni \& Tatar,
2018).

Within the NW Iran before the AVD, the 1997 Mw = 6.1 Ardebil earthquake
occurred on an N-S striking fault situated \textasciitilde{}150 km East
of the AVD, showing a pure left-lateral strike-slip faulting (Aziz
Zanjani et al., 2013). On 11 August 2012, the AVD occurred that were
very well recorded by different instruments. The first mainshock with
Mw6.5 had a right-lateral strike-slip mechanism. While the second one
with Mw6.3 was more complex and contained two slip patches: the first
patch had a right-lateral strike-slip mechanism, and the second one had
a reverse mechanism (Momeni et al., 2019). The last large earthquake in
the region is the 7 November 2019 Mw5.9 Torkamanchay earthquake (TKC)
that occurred on an NE striking left-lateral strike-slip fault between
North and South Bozkosh Faults (Valerio et al., 2020).

The EHB catalog (Engdahl et al., 2006) shows most of the seismicity on
the Talesh mountains and also on the NMF (Fig. 1a). However, no large
earthquake (M\textgreater{}5) reported on the segments of NTF in the
GCMT catalog (Fig. 1b).

In 1995 a local permanent seismic network consisting of eight stations,
known as Tabriz sub-network of the Iranian Seismological Center (IRSC),
was installed in the region (Fig. 1b). However, this sparse network
(station spacing \textasciitilde{}50 km) limited the number of precisely
located earthquakes. There are only 70 earthquakes in IRSC catalog from
1995 until the end of 2005, and none of them has located close (distance
\textless{}5km) to NTF. From 2006, after the installation of the
Broadband Iranian Network (BIN) maintained by the International
Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Seismology (IIEES) in Tehran,
Iran, and improvement of IRSC network data, the IRSC locations improved
in terms of accuracy and magnitude completeness.

Figure 1b shows the precisely located seismicity of the region recorded
in the IRSC network from 1995 until the occurrence of AVD in August
2012. They have located by at least five stations, have a location error
of \textless{}5 km, RMS of \textless{}0.5 s, and azimuthal gap of
\textless{}270deg. They are all smaller than Mw5.0 unless the 1997 Ardabil
earthquake. They mostly have shallow focal depths (\textless{} 20 km)
and are distributed mainly along the NTF and NMF. However, the central
segment of NTF near SND shows much lower seismic activity compared to
the western and eastern segments (Fig. 1b). A seismic cluster on the
North of AVD is mainly related to mining activities in that area. The
rest of the seismicity is related to the Astaneh (ASF), West Alborz
(WAF), South Qoshadagh (SQF), Goshachay (GCF), South Bozkosh (SBF),
North Mishu (NMF), Maragheh (MGF), Khajeh (KHF), and Nehram (NHF)
faults. After AVD, the only large event of the region is the 7 November
2019 Mw5.9 Torkamanchay earthquake that occurred on an NE striking
vertical dip fault between NBF and SBF near the eastern termination of
NTF.

Detailed microseismic monitoring on the NTF by a local dense seismic
network data confirmed its right-lateral strike-slip mechanism with an
East-Southeastward oriented fault plane (Moradi et al., 2011; Fig. 4).
Microearthquakes located by Moradi et al., (2011) on NTF situated in the
upper crystalline crust at depths shallower than 20 km. Moradi et al.
proposed a vertical dip fault plane for the NTF.

\emph{The goal}

In this study, the seismic activity of the NTF from historical
earthquakes until 2020 is investigated. A cumulative slip model has
proposed for the creeping segment of NTF near SND, and, the transferred
Coulomb stress by this aseismic deformation on the AVD ruptures has
computed. Ultimately, the relation between NTF seismic-aseismic
deformation activity to SND and AVD, and changes in the rheology of the
central segment of NTF near SND after AVD investigated.

\emph{Seismicity along NTF and NMF}

As mentioned before, earthquake locations by IRSC seismic network in NW
Iran started in 1995. However, the IRSC catalog is poor until the end of
2005 due to data quality and sparsely distanced stations
(\textgreater{}50 km). There are no earthquakes in the distance of 5 km
to the NTF from 1995 to the end of 2005. From 2006, earthquake
monitoring has improved in this region in terms of location accuracy and
magnitude completeness.

The well-located earthquakes in the distance of 5 km to NTF and NMF are
selected from 2006 until before the AVD and from AVD until November 2019
TKC in the IRSC network. These sets are recorded in \textgreater{}=5
stations, with location errors of \textless{}5 km, RMS of \textless{}0.5
s, and azimuthal gap of \textless{} 270deg. The first set contains 512
earthquakes in which 45 of them have magnitudes 2.5 and higher. I infer
that the central segment of NTF near SND has a long quiescence from 2006
until the occurrence of AVD. However, the two nearby segments show high
seismicity (Fig. 2a).

After AVD, 69 M\textgreater{}=2.5 earthquakes are in 5 km distance to
NTF and NMF (IRSC catalog) with a distributed seismicity and their most
concentration on the NMF (Fig. 2b; Table S3). However, the two
relatively large events (3.7\textless{}M\textless{}4.0) are located in
the central NTF near SND (Fig. 2b).

The cumulative scalar seismic moments of the earthquakes that occurred
after 2006 until the 2012 AVD, and after that until TKC, is computed to
investigate the seismic energy release behaviour along the NTF and NMF.
The cumulative scalar seismic moment plot of the first set shows two
peaks in the Eastern and Western lobes of central NTF that matches to
SND, and one on the NMF (Fig. 2b). However, the central NTF itself was
almost silent.

For earthquakes that occurred on NTF After AVD, the cumulative scalar
seismic moment plot shows a peak in the middle of the central NTF.
However, the previously observed peaks of the scalar seismic moment on
its lobes are disappeared (Fig. 2b). There is also a relatively wide
peak on the NMF, North of Urmieh Lake, where the high seismicity was
also observed before AVD.

\emph{Creeping segment of NTF near SND}

Creeping behaviour is mainly related to frictional strength of the fault
zone material, depending on lithology, temperature, and pore-fluid
pressure (i.e. Avouac, 2015, Khoshmanesh \& Shirzaei, 2018). The
magmatic activities reported in a GPS study by Su et al., (2017) near
BA, known thermal springs there, and absence of seismic activity from
2006 until 2012 AVD on the central NTF near BA, propose that the
existing heat due to the SND magma chamber decrease the effective normal
stress on this segment of the fault by increasing the pore-fluid
pressure on the fractured fault area and consequently cause it to creep.
The resulting different deformation rates along NTF segments is probably
the reason for the observed two peaks of high cumulative scalar seismic
moments on both lobes of central segment of NTF near SND.

To prove this idea, a cumulative aseismic deformation on the central
segment of NTF is estimated. This segment didn't rupture since the 1721
M7.6 historical earthquake and the GPS study by Djamour et al., (2011)
and Rizza et al., (2013) suggest right-lateral deformation of 7mmy-1 for
this segment. A maximum slip of 0.007*(2012-1721) =2.04 meters is
expected for this segment until the AVD. This segment has a strike/dip
of 300deg/90deg and covers the silent central segment of NTF with a length
of \textasciitilde{}30 km and locking depth of \textasciitilde{}20 km
that is suggested by Djamour et al., (2011). I stress that Rizza et al.,
(2013) suggested a relatively unchanged deformation rate on NTF since 65
ka. If I fairly pose that only half of this deformation has happened in
creep mode and the other half is locked (and may rupture in a future
earthquake), the slip model will have a maximum value equal to 1.02 m.
Later in section 4, I will explain that even considering the smaller
contribution of creep in the whole deformation (i.e. 25\%), the
transferred stress field by the creeping segment will be high enough to
trigger the AVD. An elliptical slip patch (i.e. Ruiz \& Madariaga, 2013;
Momeni et al., 2019) is proposed with a max slip of 1.02 m at the center
and with a Gaussian distribution of slip and half of the max slip equal
to \textasciitilde{}51 cm on the borders, where high seismic activity is
observed (Fig. 2a). The resulting source has a scalar seismic moment of
\textasciitilde{}2.0*e+19 Nm equal to an Mw6.8 earthquake. For a fully
creeping slip model, the source will have a scalar seismic moment of
\textasciitilde{}4.0*e+19 Nm equal to an Mw7.0 earthquake.

The resulting deformation may transfer positive Coulomb failure stresses
on the nearby faults. I note that AVD has occurred in the same longitude
to this creeping segment, suggesting that the right-lateral deformation
does not fully release on NTF and probably some of it transfer toward
North, as also suggested by Donner et al., (2015) by geological
investigations.

\emph{4. Stress transfer}

\emph{4.1. Stress transfer from the creeping segment of NTF to AVD}

The stress tensor produced by the defined slip model for the creeping
segment of NTF is calculated on a 3-D grid in the region using a method
by Wang et al. (2003) (Fig. 3). The method is based on the dislocation
theory that is implemented in a multilayered media. A 1-D crustal
velocity model of the area retrieved from precisely located aftershocks
of AVD is used, and a Poisson ratio of \selectlanguage{english}~0.25 obtained from a Vp/Vs ratio
of 1.74 (Momeni \& Tatar 2018, Table S1). The Coulomb stress field is
calculated on optimally oriented ruptures of both Ahar-Varzaghan
earthquakes, and by considering strike-slip mechanisms of their slip
patches obtained by Momeni et al., (2019).

A positive Coulomb stress of \textgreater{}1 bar is transferred from the
creeping segment on the ruptured areas during the doublet (Fig. 3a).
Also, the creeping segment had positive coulomb stress transfer of
\textgreater{}4 bar on the nearby segments and excited them to slip
(Fig. 3b), especially on the western segment of NTF (e.g., Vadacca,
2020).

\emph{4.2. Stress transfer from AVD to NTF}

The stress tensor produced by the AVD ruptures that were obtained in a
study by Momeni et al., (2019) is computed on the region using the same
method mentioned in section 4.1. As was also reported by Momeni et al.,
(2019), the stress field shows a positive Coulomb stress transfer of
\textgreater{}0.1 bar on most of the creeping segment of NTF, and also
\textasciitilde{}0.1 bar on the NBF (Fig. 4a). The two peaks of
cumulative scalar seismic moments of earthquakes are observed in these
segments on NTF and NBF from the 2012 AVD until the 2019 TKC (Fig. 2b).

A cumulative positive normal stress transfer of \textgreater{}0.1 bar is
obtained from AVD on most of the creeping segment of NTF (Fig. 4b). This
additional positive normal stress to the regional stress may increase
the effective normal stress on the creeping segment and change its
rheology from partial creep to more stick-slip. The occurrence of two
earthquakes on the proposed creep segment after the AVD which is also
observed as a peak of the scalar seismic moment in Figure 2d confirms
our suggestion.

On the NMF, two a wide peak of the cumulative scalar seismic moment was
observed North of Urmieh Lake before AVD. While after the doublet, there
is a peak of the cumulative scalar seismic moment in between of the
previous wide peak suggesting that this part was partially locked, and
has been excited by the doublet. Also, these seismic activities may be
partly related to the relatively higher pore-fluid pressure provided by
the Urmieh Lake on the NMF, or by the recent dramatic decrease of 90\%
of the water volume of the lake during years 1995 to 2013 (Schulz et
al., 2020) that may reduce the effective normal stress on NMF, unclamp
it, and excite it to slip.

\emph{5. Discussion}

The seismicity of the NTF and NMF is investigated from documented
historical earthquakes to November 2019 TKC earthquake. Many historical
earthquakes are referred to NTF (Fig. 1a). The last two historical
earthquakes of 1721 AD and 1780 AD cover all NTF segments. EHB catalog
shows most of the seismic activity on the western termination of NTF.
However, the GCMT catalog does not have any earthquake on the NTF.

The IRSC network earthquake catalog has improved from 2006 in terms of
completeness and location accuracy. There are 512 earthquakes (45 of
which have Ml\textgreater{}=2.5; Table S2) in the distance of 5 km from
NTF and NMF for a period from 2006 until before AVD. These seismic
activities are distributed along all segments of NTF and NMF unless the
central segment of NTF that is situated North of SND and shows much less
seismicity compared to its neighbor segments. Two remarkable peaks are
observable in the cumulative scalar seismic moments of these earthquakes
on both lobes of the central segment of NTF near SND (Figure 2b). A
probable explanation for such behaviour is that the segment of NTF near
SND is partially creeping. Djamour et al., (2011) and Rizza et al.,
(2013) reported a decrease in right-lateral surface deformation rate
from West of BA (Longitude 47deg) to the East from 7mmy-1 to 5mmy-1. Su et
al., (2017) remarked that the region near BA is affected by deep
magmatic activities of SND. This segment is close to the thermal areas
(hot springs) near BA reported by Ghalamghash et al. (2019). Tomography
studies by Rezaeifar et al., (2016) and Bavali et al., (2016) revealed a
heterogeneous structure in this region with high and low-velocity
anomalies. A low-velocity region has obtained beneath SND at depths
deeper than 8 km that extends until the NTF by Bavali et al., (2016)
(Fig. 5). However, at shallower depths, a relatively high-velocity
anomaly obtained by Rezaeifar et al., (2016), and interpreted as cooled
magmatic rocks of SND. The observed thermal activities near BA area are
probably due to the existence of some dyke-like branches of the SND deep
magma chamber in that area that was also suggested by Ghalamghash et al.
(2019) as many young craters with dacitic to rhyolitic parasitic cones
of magma of neo-Sahand were observed toward NNE of SND near BA (see Fig.
3). The other explanation will be the possible aid of NTF fractured area
which is extended down to the depth of 20 km, in bringing heat to the
surface. The existing heat increases the pore-fluid pressure in the
fault area and unclamps this segment of NTF, facilitating its creep.

However, this segment of NTF was ruptured as a part of the 1721 AD M7.6
earthquake. Harris, (2017) mentioned that the creeping segments are also
potential to rupture in M\textasciitilde{}6.8 earthquakes, and they
usually rupture together with their nearby segments (i.e. Van den Ende
et al., 2020). Dynamic weakening is the probable mechanism for rupture
of such fault segments (i.e. Noda \& Lapusta, 2013). The same mechanism
may have happened during the 1721 AD earthquake, and that is most likely
the reason for segmentation of NTF during 1721 AD and 1780 AD historical
earthquakes.

The effect of raise of pore-fluid pressure in facilitating the fault
creep/slip is widely observed and reported mostly for Strike-slip
faulting mechanism (e.g. Avouac, 2015, Floyd et al., 2016, Goebel et
al., 2017, Scuderi et al., 2017, Michel et al., 2018, Johann et al.,
2018, Eaton \& Schultz, 2018, Zhu et al., 2020, Momeni \& Madariaga,
2020).

A slip model is estimated for the creeping segment of NTF from 1721 AD
until before the 2012 AVD considering that half of the 7 mmy-1
right-lateral deformation rate obtained by Djamour et al., (2011) and
Rizza et al., (2013) was happening in creep mode. This creep has
occurred at the longitudes between 46.55deg E to 46.85deg E and with a
locking depth of 20 km. Having a maximum cumulative slip of 1.02m, the
obtained cumulative scalar seismic moment is 2.0 * e+19 Nm equal to
Mw6.8 (for the fully creep mode, this value raises to 4.0 * e+19 Nm
equal to Mw7.0). This also remarks that the other segments of NTF have a
considerable amount of accumulated tectonic stress.

The creeping segment of NTF transferred positive Coulomb stress field of
\textgreater{}4 bar on the neighbor segments, and brought them closer to
failure (Fig. 3b). That is confirmed by the observation of two peaks of
cumulative scalar seismic moments on both lobes of the creeping segment.
These earthquakes can be considered as aftershocks of the creep event.
Aftershocks surrounding a slip model is a consistent feature of large
earthquakes (see Henry \& Das, 2002).

The 3D stress field produced by this creep source on AVD is computed.
The estimated slip model for the creeping segment can transfer positive
Coulomb stress of \textgreater{}1 bar on the AVD and trigger them (Fig.
6). After the AVD until November 2019, one peak of the cumulative scalar
seismic moment is observed for earthquakes occurred in 5 km distance
from NTF, and that is in the middle of the central NTF. There is also
one peak on the NMF. Observation of seismic activity on the previously
creeping segment of NTF and absence of two peaks of cumulative scalar
seismic moments on both lobes of that segment suggest a change in its
rheology from creep to stick-slip after AVD. This change is probably due
to the positive static normal stress field of \textgreater{}0.1 bar that
was transferred from AVD on half of the creeping segment of NTF. Also,
Momeni et al., (2019) compute the stress field by AVD on NTF and NMF and
reported transfer of positive Coulomb stress of \textgreater{}0.1 bar on
the central segment of NTF as well as NMF. For the NMF, two relatively
small peaks of cumulative scalar seismic moment release are observed
before the AVD (Fig. 2b). After AVD, one big peak is observed in between
the two previous peaks suggesting that this part of NMF was partially
locked, and triggered by the 2012 AVD.

Seismic quiescence of the creeping segment of NTF near SND from 2006
together with the observed magmatic activities in that area proposes a
strong relation between the volcanic activity of SND and frictional
properties of that segment of NTF. Compared to the central NTF, the
western segment that is closer to the Tabriz city shows higher seismic
activity. Also, the Eastern segment shows considerable seismic activity
which highlights its importance as another potential segment of the NTF
for future large earthquakes.

The smooth geometry of the central and western segments of NTF may
facilitate the rupture expansion on them. However, low seismic coupling
in the creeping central NTF may act as a barrier and stop ruptures from
expansion toward the western segment.

The suggested 20km thick seismogenic layer for NTF (Djamour et al.,
2011; Moradi et al. 2011), highlights its potential for the production
of large earthquakes and with low-frequency seismic energy contents that
can reach to Tabriz city with less damped energy and affect the tall
buildings.

\emph{6. Conclusion}

I infer a seismic quiescence in the central segment of the NTF, North of
SND from 2006 until August 2012 AVD. While the two eastern and western
segments of NTF show much higher seismicity with two remarkable peaks of
cumulative scalar seismic moments on both lobes of the central segment
near SND. The existing heat by the SND magma chamber near the fractured
area of central NTF raises the pore-fluid pressure and decreases the
effective normal stress there, consequently unclamp the fault, and
facilitate the right-lateral creep. An Mw6.8 half-creep slip model is
suggested for this segment considering half of 7 mmy-1 constant geodetic
deformation rate on it since the 1721 AD historical earthquake.

The creeping segment is situated in almost the same longitude range to
the 2012 AVD and transferred positive Coulomb stress fields of
\textgreater{}1 bar on them. This segment also transferred
\textgreater{}4 bar of positive Coulomb stress on its neighbor segments,
where the two peaks of cumulative seismic moments were observed. Some of
the right-lateral deformation stresses on central NTF transferred to the
North and released during the 2012 AVD on the Ahar-Varzaghan complex
fault system (Fig. 6).

After the AVD until TKC, two new peaks of the cumulative scalar seismic
moment have observed for earthquakes that occurred on NTF and NMF. One
is exactly in the middle of the previously creeping central segment of
NTF, consistent to the obtained transfer of positive normal and Coulomb
stresses on this segment by AVD (i.e. Momeni et al., 2019). The
transferred stress changed the rheology of the creeping segment from
mostly creeping to temporary stick-slip.

The other peak of the cumulative scalar seismic moment is on the NMF
North of Urmieh Lake, and, may be due to the existing pore-fluid
pressure or a recent dramatic decline in the water level of the lake
over the past two decades (90\% decrease in its volume has happened
during 1995 to 2013; Schulz et al., 2020) that both reduce the effective
normal stress on NMF, unclamp it, and facilitate slip on it (e.g. Saar
\& Manga, 2003).The two peaks of cumulative scalar seismic moments
observed before AVD on the western and eastern lobes of the creep
segment of NTF near SND were disappeared after AVD until November 2019
TKC, suggesting a change in seismic activity of NTF along its segments
by the transferred stress fields produced by AVD, at least for the first
8 years. This change is probably temporary and NTF will return to
continue its creep behaviour in the central segment near SND.

In terms of rupture dynamics, the two highly stressed neighbor segments
of NTF are prone to nucleate earthquakes (e.g. Vadacca et al., 2020). If
an earthquake nucleates on the stressed lobes of the creeping segment
and its rupture grow toward the West, it will cause a strong directivity
effect for that earthquake toward Tabriz city. However, the creeping
segment may work as a barrier and probably does not allow NTF to rupture
in both Central and Western segments in one larger earthquake.

The change in seismic activity on the different segments of NTF and
having mix behaviour of lock and creep deformation on them raise the
seismic hazard in the region, especially for the Tabriz city that
currently host \textgreater{} 2 million people. I suggest continuous
monitoring of seismicity along NTF will help to understand the
rheological behaviours of segments of this mature fault system, with a
concentration on the central and western segments that did not rupture
in large events since the 1721 AD and 1780 AD historical earthquakes.

\emph{7. Data and Resources}

The earthquakes data are available through the Iranian Seismological
Center (IRSC) network website (http://irsc.ut.ac.ir). The earthquake
focal mechanisms in Figure 1b are from the GCMT catalog
(http://www.globalcmt.org/CMTsearch.html last access on August, 2020).
The supplementary data includes velocity model of the area and
earthquakes hypocenters information.

\emph{8. Acknowledgements}

This research did not receive any specific grant from funding agencies
in the public, commercial, or not-for-profit sectors. I thank IRSC and
IIEES networks for providing the seismic data. Figures plotted using
Generic Mapping Tools (GMT) (http://gmt.soest.hawaii.edu/), Paraview
software (https://www.paraview.org), and personal codes in Matlab
environment (https://www.mathworks.com).

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\textbf{Mailing address:}

Seyyedmaalek Momeni

EPFL Geo-Energy Lab -- Gaznat Chair on Geo-Energy, EPFL-ENAC-IIC-GEL,
Station 18, CH-1015, Lausanne, Switzerland.

\textbf{Figure Captions:}

\textbf{Figure 1} . (\textbf{a} ) Seismotectonics of the study region.
Stars show the 2012 AVD hypocenter locations, and the related focal
mechanisms are by Momeni \& Tatar, (2018). Faults are in lines. Vectors
are geodetic surface deformation rates by Masson et al., (2006), fixing
the central Iran block. Hexagons are historical earthquakes (Ambraseys
\& Melvile, 1982; Berberian \& Yeats, 1999, 2001). Circles are
instrumental earthquakes by Engdahl et al. (2006). Dashed ellipses show
affected regions by the 1593, 1721, 1780, and 1786 historical
earthquakes. Fault names are: ASF: Astaneh, WAF: West Alborz, SQF: South
Qoshadagh, GCF: Goshachay, NBF: North Bozkosh, SBF: South Bozkosh, NMF:
North Mishu, SMF: South Mishu, MGF: Maraghe, NKH: Nakhjavan, KHF:
Khajeh, and NHF: Nehram. NTF is in thick solid line. (\textbf{b} )
Circles: Seismicity recorded in IRSC network from 2006 until before the
AVD. Colors represent hypocentral depths. Faults are the same as (a).
Focal mechanisms with label are from the GCMT catalog until August 2020.
Those labeled M6.1 ARD, M6.5 AVD1, M6.3 AVD2, and M5.9 TKC are from the
1997 Ardebil, 2012 AVD doublet and 2019 Mw5.9 Torkamanchay earthquakes.
Triangles are the Tabriz permanent seismic sub-network stations belong
to IRSC.

\textbf{Figure 2} . Seismicity along NTF and NMF. (\textbf{a} ): black
circles are the earthquakes from 2006 to before the 2012 AVD and white
circles are the earthquakes that occurred after 2012 AVD until 2019 TKC.
Ellipse is the estimated cumulative slip model for the creeping segment
of NTF near SND from 1721 AD historical earthquake until AVD. The dashed
circle is the thermal area (after Ghalamghash et al, 2019). (\textbf{b}
) up: histogram showing seismicity selected in distance of 5 km from NTF
and NMF shown in (a). NMF stands for North Mishu Fault. down: Diagram of
cumulative scalar seismic moments along NTF and NMF.

\textbf{Figure} \textbf{3} . Transferred Coulomb stress field from the
creeping segment of NTF on the (\textbf{a} ) AVD ruptures and
(\textbf{b} ) the Western and Eastern segments of the creep segment of
NTF, where high seismic activity was observed. The shown Coulomb stress
fields are for the depth of 6 km. Circles along NTF are earthquakes from
2006 until AVD. The rest are early aftershocks of the AVD (IRSC). Dashed
circle is the thermal area by Ghalamghash et al., (2019). Solid large
circle shows the area of neo-Sahand young craters near Bostan Abad (BA).
Dashed line marked A is the position of vertical cross sections shown in
Figures 5 and 6.

\textbf{Figure} \textbf{4} . (\textbf{a} ): Transferred Coulomb stress
fields from AVD ruptures on NTF (up: EV\#1, down: EV\#2). (\textbf{b} ):
Transferred Normal stress fields from AVD ruptures on NTF (up: EV\#1,
down: EV\#2). The shown stress fields are for the depth of 10 km.

\textbf{Figure 5.} Schematic plot illustrating the relation between SND
magmatic activity, NTF creeping segment, and AVD ruptures (marked AV\#1
\& AV\#2). Low and high velocity areas are from Bavali et al., (2016),
Rezaeifar et al., (2016), and Ghalamghash et al, (2019) studies. Stars
are the 11 August 2012 M6.5\&M6.3 mainshocks centroids. Thick dashed
line is the NTF. Horizontal dashed lines are crustal velocity layers
from Momeni \& Tatar, (2018).

\textbf{Figure 6.} Graphic illustration of triggering of the 2012 AVD by
the transfer of Coulomb stress field produced by the central NTF
creeping segment. Stars are the mainshocks hypocenters. Rupture models
are from Momeni et al., (2019). Horizontal dashed lines are crustal
velocity layers from Momeni \& Tatar, (2018).

\textbf{Figures:}\selectlanguage{english}
\begin{figure}[H]
\begin{center}
\includegraphics[width=0.70\columnwidth]{figures/image1/image1}

\end{center}
\end{figure}

\textbf{Figure 1} . (\textbf{a)} Seismotectonics of the study
region.\textbf{(b)} Seismicity recorded in IRSC network from 2006 until
before the AVD.\selectlanguage{english}
\begin{figure}[H]
\begin{center}
\includegraphics[width=0.70\columnwidth]{figures/image2/image2}

\end{center}
\end{figure}

\textbf{Figure 2} . \textbf{(a)} Seismicity along NTF and
NMF.\textbf{(b)} Histograms of earthquake distribution along NTF and
NMF.\selectlanguage{english}
\begin{figure}[H]
\begin{center}
\includegraphics[width=0.70\columnwidth]{figures/image3/image3}

\end{center}
\end{figure}

\textbf{Figure} \textbf{3} . Transferred Coulomb stress field from the
creeping segment of NTF. \textbf{(a)} on the AVD ruptures
and\textbf{(b)} on the Western and Eastern segments of the creeping
segment.\selectlanguage{english}
\begin{figure}[H]
\begin{center}
\includegraphics[width=0.70\columnwidth]{figures/image4/image4}

\end{center}
\end{figure}

\textbf{Figure} \textbf{4} . Transferred \textbf{(a)} Coulomb
and\textbf{(b)} Normal stress fields from AVD ruptures on NTF.\selectlanguage{english}
\begin{figure}[H]
\begin{center}
\includegraphics[width=0.70\columnwidth]{figures/image5/image5}

\end{center}
\end{figure}

\textbf{Figure 5} . Schematic plot illustrating the relation between SND
magmatic activity, NTF creeping segment, and AVD ruptures.\selectlanguage{english}
\begin{figure}[H]
\begin{center}
\includegraphics[width=0.70\columnwidth]{figures/image6/image6}

\end{center}
\end{figure}

\textbf{Figure 6} . Graphic illustration of triggering of the 2012 AVD
by the transfer of Coulomb stress field produced by the central NTF
creeping segment.

\textbf{Electronic Supplement}

\textbf{Tables:}

\textbf{Table S1.} Velocity model of the NW Iran by Momeni \& Tatar,
(2018).\selectlanguage{english}
\begin{longtable}[]{@{}lll@{}}
\toprule
\begin{minipage}[b]{0.32\columnwidth}\raggedright\strut
Depth of layer top\strut
\end{minipage} & \begin{minipage}[b]{0.32\columnwidth}\raggedright\strut
Vp\strut
\end{minipage} & \begin{minipage}[b]{0.32\columnwidth}\raggedright\strut
Vs\strut
\end{minipage}\tabularnewline
\midrule
\endhead
\begin{minipage}[t]{0.30\columnwidth}\raggedright\strut
-3\strut
\end{minipage} & \begin{minipage}[t]{0.30\columnwidth}\raggedright\strut
4.58\strut
\end{minipage} & \begin{minipage}[t]{0.30\columnwidth}\raggedright\strut
2.44\strut
\end{minipage}\tabularnewline
\begin{minipage}[t]{0.30\columnwidth}\raggedright\strut
2\strut
\end{minipage} & \begin{minipage}[t]{0.30\columnwidth}\raggedright\strut
5.65\strut
\end{minipage} & \begin{minipage}[t]{0.30\columnwidth}\raggedright\strut
3.11\strut
\end{minipage}\tabularnewline
\begin{minipage}[t]{0.30\columnwidth}\raggedright\strut
4\strut
\end{minipage} & \begin{minipage}[t]{0.30\columnwidth}\raggedright\strut
5.92\strut
\end{minipage} & \begin{minipage}[t]{0.30\columnwidth}\raggedright\strut
3.34\strut
\end{minipage}\tabularnewline
\begin{minipage}[t]{0.30\columnwidth}\raggedright\strut
6\strut
\end{minipage} & \begin{minipage}[t]{0.30\columnwidth}\raggedright\strut
6.20\strut
\end{minipage} & \begin{minipage}[t]{0.30\columnwidth}\raggedright\strut
3.53\strut
\end{minipage}\tabularnewline
\begin{minipage}[t]{0.30\columnwidth}\raggedright\strut
10\strut
\end{minipage} & \begin{minipage}[t]{0.30\columnwidth}\raggedright\strut
6.35\strut
\end{minipage} & \begin{minipage}[t]{0.30\columnwidth}\raggedright\strut
3.63\strut
\end{minipage}\tabularnewline
\begin{minipage}[t]{0.30\columnwidth}\raggedright\strut
14\strut
\end{minipage} & \begin{minipage}[t]{0.30\columnwidth}\raggedright\strut
6.52\strut
\end{minipage} & \begin{minipage}[t]{0.30\columnwidth}\raggedright\strut
3.71\strut
\end{minipage}\tabularnewline
\begin{minipage}[t]{0.30\columnwidth}\raggedright\strut
46\strut
\end{minipage} & \begin{minipage}[t]{0.30\columnwidth}\raggedright\strut
8.10\strut
\end{minipage} & \begin{minipage}[t]{0.30\columnwidth}\raggedright\strut
4.63\strut
\end{minipage}\tabularnewline
\bottomrule
\end{longtable}

\textbf{Table S2. Earthquakes with Ml\textgreater{}=2.5 along the North
Tabriz fault segments and NMF and SBF from 2006 until before the August
2012 Ahar-Varzaghan earthquake doublet (Mw6.5\&6.3) (IRSC).}\selectlanguage{english}
\begin{longtable}[]{@{}llllllllll@{}}
\toprule
& Longitude & Latitude & Year & Month & Day & Magnitude & Depth & Hour &
Minute\tabularnewline
\midrule
\endhead
Central NTF & 46.56 & 37.95 & 2007 & 10 & 4 & 2.7 & 12.80 & 3 &
2\tabularnewline
& 46.43 & 38.09 & 2007 & 12 & 1 & 4.5 & 7.4 & 18 & 45\tabularnewline
& 46.64 & 37.94 & 2008 & 3 & 24 & 3.1 & 11.8 & 9 & 44\tabularnewline
& 46.42 & 38.10 & 2008 & 4 & 7 & 3.2 & 11.4 & 2 & 48\tabularnewline
& 46.42 & 38.09 & 2008 & 5 & 10 & 3.3 & 15.1 & 16 & 15\tabularnewline
& 46.57 & 37.96 & 2009 & 6 & 13 & 2.7 & 15.5 & 23 & 21\tabularnewline
& 46.82 & 37.87 & 2009 & 10 & 12 & 2.7 & 9.8 & 20 & 55\tabularnewline
& 46.84 & 37.86 & 2010 & 2 & 2 & 3.6 & 5.0 & 10 & 5\tabularnewline
& 46.84 & 37.83 & 2010 & 2 & 2 & 3.4 & 2.1 & 10 & 15\tabularnewline
& 46.84 & 37.86 & 2010 & 2 & 2 & 4.6 & 5.0 & 10 & 16\tabularnewline
& 46.83 & 37.84 & 2010 & 2 & 2 & 3.8 & 5.0 & 11 & 26\tabularnewline
Eastern NTF & 47.21 & 37.72 & 2006 & 2 & 2 & 2.9 & 8.4 & 19 &
49\tabularnewline
& 46.99 & 37.81 & 2007 & 5 & 26 & 2.5 & 8.4 & 22 & 1\tabularnewline
& 47 & 37.73 & 2007 & 6 & 21 & 2.7 & 3.5 & 16 & 27\tabularnewline
& 46.97 & 37.82 & 2008 & 1 & 28 & 2.8 & 5.4 & 13 & 38\tabularnewline
& 47.13 & 37.73 & 2008 & 4 & 19 & 3.1 & 18 & 13 & 36\tabularnewline
& 46.88 & 37.84 & 2010 & 2 & 2 & 3.0 & 11.6 & 13 & 23\tabularnewline
& 47.04 & 37.77 & 2011 & 10 & 18 & 2.9 & 1.7 & 21 & 4\tabularnewline
Western NTF & 46.22 & 38.20 & 2006 & 1 & 8 & 3.1 & 4.0 & 17 &
19\tabularnewline
& 46.34 & 38.07 & 2008 & 1 & 22 & 2.5 & 10 & 8 & 55\tabularnewline
& 46.34 & 38.14 & 2008 & 6 & 1 & 2.6 & 13.50 & 2 & 17\tabularnewline
& 46.18 & 38.16 & 2008 & 6 & 26 & 2.6 & 16.20 & 16 & 34\tabularnewline
& 46.20 & 38.15 & 2008 & 6 & 26 & 2.6 & 14.70 & 16 & 39\tabularnewline
& 46.18 & 38.16 & 2008 & 6 & 26 & 3.1 & 16.70 & 17 & 6\tabularnewline
& 46.18 & 38.16 & 2008 & 6 & 26 & 2.7 & 15.80 & 17 & 8\tabularnewline
& 46.35 & 38.13 & 2008 & 7 & 28 & 2.9 & 17.20 & 7 & 13\tabularnewline
& 46.10 & 38.23 & 2009 & 2 & 13 & 2.6 & 5.1 & 4 & 0\tabularnewline
& 46.39 & 38.11 & 2009 & 8 & 5 & 2.6 & 10.40 & 22 & 15\tabularnewline
& 45.93 & 38.29 & 2010 & 1 & 4 & 2.6 & 10 & 7 & 38\tabularnewline
& 46.34 & 38.12 & 2011 & 1 & 29 & 3 & 14.80 & 7 & 29\tabularnewline
& 46.36 & 38.10 & 2012 & 5 & 4 & 2.6 & 7.8 & 21 & 48\tabularnewline
NMF & 45.47 & 38.41 & 2006 & 8 & 12 & 3.6 & 13.60 & 7 & 2\tabularnewline
& 45.35 & 38.49 & 2007 & 7 & 8 & 2.6 & 15.80 & 22 & 49\tabularnewline
& 45.38 & 38.40 & 2008 & 4 & 22 & 3.7 & 9 & 19 & 53\tabularnewline
& 45.74 & 38.34 & 2008 & 9 & 6 & 2.6 & 3 & 11 & 8\tabularnewline
& 45.41 & 38.47 & 2009 & 4 & 24 & 3.6 & 3.8 & 18 & 28\tabularnewline
& 45.45 & 38.39 & 2011 & 8 & 19 & 2.6 & 19.8 & 4 & 31\tabularnewline
& 45.69 & 38.36 & 2012 & 2 & 5 & 2.9 & 23.6 & 22 & 15\tabularnewline
& 45.57 & 38.43 & 2012 & 4 & 29 & 3.2 & 8 & 0 & 16\tabularnewline
& 45.55 & 38.42 & 2012 & 4 & 29 & 3 & 11.20 & 0 & 22\tabularnewline
SBF & 47.55 & 37.64 & 2008 & 6 & 12 & 2.5 & 10 & 3 & 19\tabularnewline
& 47.29 & 37.75 & 2010 & 7 & 14 & 2.9 & 18 & 16 & 46\tabularnewline
& 47.54 & 37.68 & 2010 & 10 & 23 & 2.7 & 4.10 & 17 & 59\tabularnewline
& 47.55 & 37.66 & 2011 & 6 & 6 & 3.1 & 0.70 & 12 & 23\tabularnewline
& 47.55 & 37.64 & 2008 & 6 & 12 & 2.5 & 10 & 3 & 19\tabularnewline
\bottomrule
\end{longtable}

\textbf{Table S3. Earthquakes with Ml\textgreater{}=2.5 along the North
Tabriz fault segments and NMF and SBF from the August 2012
Ahar-Varzaghan earthquake doublet until the November 2019 Mw5.9
Torkamanchay earthquake (IRSC).}\selectlanguage{english}
\begin{longtable}[]{@{}llllllllll@{}}
\toprule
& Longitude & Latitude & Year & Month & Day & Magnitude & Depth & Hour &
Minute\tabularnewline
\midrule
\endhead
Central NTF & 46.47 & 38.06 & 2012 & 12 & 13 & 2.7 & 18 & 0 &
29\tabularnewline
& 46.75 & 37.93 & 2012 & 12 & 16 & 3.2 & 10 & 10 & 41\tabularnewline
& 46.42 & 38.09 & 2014 & 3 & 9 & 3.6 & 7.4 & 6 & 34\tabularnewline
& 46.59 & 37.93 & 2015 & 1 & 19 & 3.8 & 9.5 & 11 & 53\tabularnewline
& 46.84 & 37.87 & 2015 & 12 & 2 & 2.8 & 8 & 0 & 31\tabularnewline
& 46.52 & 38.00 & 2016 & 1 & 27 & 3.0 & 14.7 & 20 & 31\tabularnewline
& 46.43 & 38.04 & 2016 & 6 & 27 & 2.5 & 19.6 & 18 & 38\tabularnewline
& 46.42 & 38.03 & 2017 & 1 & 5 & 2.6 & 5.7 & 4 & 33\tabularnewline
& 46.43 & 38.06 & 2018 & 12 & 12 & 3.5 & 6 & 5 & 56\tabularnewline
& 46.44 & 38.07 & 2018 & 12 & 21 & 3.6 & 5 & 9 & 39\tabularnewline
& 46.60 & 37.98 & 2019 & 8 & 16 & 4.2 & 8.9 & 10 & 55\tabularnewline
Eastern NTF & 47.03 & 37.80 & 2013 & 2 & 8 & 2.6 & 10 & 19 &
25\tabularnewline
& 46.95 & 37.82 & 2013 & 2 & 12 & 2.5 & 5.1 & 8 & 11\tabularnewline
& 47.05 & 37.76 & 2014 & 2 & 11 & 2.7 & 5.4 & 10 & 18\tabularnewline
& 47.04 & 37.77 & 2014 & 8 & 19 & 2.5 & 10 & 5 & 43\tabularnewline
& 47.02 & 37.78 & 2014 & 9 & 8 & 2.8 & 10 & 16 & 53\tabularnewline
& 47.04 & 37.80 & 2018 & 6 & 1 & 2.5 & 10 & 0 & 8\tabularnewline
& 46.99 & 37.79 & 2018 & 11 & 24 & 3.3 & 8.6 & 17 & 22\tabularnewline
& 47.01 & 37.78 & 2018 & 11 & 25 & 2.5 & 10 & 9 & 46\tabularnewline
& 47.00 & 37.78 & 2018 & 11 & 26 & 3.3 & 6 & 20 & 9\tabularnewline
& 46.99 & 37.79 & 2018 & 11 & 27 & 2.7 & 6 & 11 & 33\tabularnewline
Western NTF & 45.89 & 38.29 & 2013 & 10 & 12 & 2.9 & 6 & 5 &
48\tabularnewline
& 45.90 & 38.35 & 2015 & 2 & 5 & 2.5 & 6.9 & 7 & 40\tabularnewline
& 46.38 & 38.13 & 2015 & 4 & 4 & 2.8 & 10 & 21 & 24\tabularnewline
& 45.97 & 38.30 & 2016 & 10 & 28 & 2.7 & 19.3 & 9 & 18\tabularnewline
& 46.31 & 38.07 & 2016 & 11 & 14 & 3.6 & 7.6 & 3 & 35\tabularnewline
& 45.98 & 38.28 & 2016 & 12 & 29 & 2.6 & 10 & 8 & 36\tabularnewline
& 46.34 & 38.12 & 2017 & 3 & 31 & 2.7 & 10 & 20 & 4\tabularnewline
& 46.32 & 38.07 & 2017 & 6 & 23 & 2.6 & 8 & 4 & 35\tabularnewline
& 46.04 & 38.23 & 2018 & 1 & 22 & 3.2 & 8.4 & 15 & 59\tabularnewline
& 46.04 & 38.23 & 2018 & 1 & 22 & 2.9 & 9.4 & 16 & 14\tabularnewline
& 46.34 & 38.14 & 2018 & 5 & 6 & 2.7 & 9.4 & 8 & 33\tabularnewline
& 46.36 & 38.11 & 2018 & 6 & 22 & 2.9 & 10 & 17 & 5\tabularnewline
& 46.34 & 38.13 & 2019 & 5 & 8 & 2.9 & 8.9 & 22 & 57\tabularnewline
NMF & 45.36 & 38.43 & 2013 & 4 & 18 & 4.9 & 6.1 & 10 & 39\tabularnewline
& 45.34 & 38.41 & 2013 & 4 & 18 & 3 & 10.2 & 10 & 53\tabularnewline
& 45.35 & 38.42 & 2013 & 4 & 18 & 2.9 & 12 & 11 & 32\tabularnewline
& 45.38 & 38.41 & 2013 & 4 & 18 & 3.9 & 6.4 & 11 & 40\tabularnewline
& 45.33 & 38.42 & 2013 & 4 & 18 & 2.6 & 30.3 & 13 & 30\tabularnewline
& 45.39 & 38.40 & 2013 & 4 & 29 & 2.6 & 12.6 & 14 & 36\tabularnewline
& 45.41 & 38.40 & 2013 & 6 & 28 & 4.2 & 5.30 & 5 & 13\tabularnewline
& 45.46 & 38.45 & 2014 & 3 & 12 & 2.6 & 10.8 & 10 & 28\tabularnewline
& 45.60 & 38.43 & 2014 & 5 & 13 & 2.5 & 9.8 & 3 & 59\tabularnewline
& 45.30 & 38.44 & 2015 & 4 & 10 & 2.5 & 10 & 19 & 17\tabularnewline
& 45.75 & 38.34 & 2015 & 12 & 31 & 3 & 11.8 & 22 & 31\tabularnewline
& 45.65 & 38.37 & 2016 & 2 & 15 & 2.5 & 7.3 & 4 & 56\tabularnewline
& 45.67 & 38.39 & 2016 & 9 & 26 & 2.5 & 8 & 20 & 35\tabularnewline
& 45.71 & 38.35 & 2016 & 9 & 27 & 3.7 & 5 & 18 & 18\tabularnewline
& 45.67 & 38.38 & 2016 & 10 & 7 & 2.6 & 4 & 7 & 13\tabularnewline
& 45.40 & 38.40 & 2016 & 12 & 26 & 2.9 & 18.3 & 1 & 55\tabularnewline
& 45.34 & 38.41 & 2017 & 12 & 4 & 2.5 & 7 & 7 & 0\tabularnewline
& 45.37 & 38.43 & 2018 & 1 & 13 & 3.2 & 6 & 0 & 50\tabularnewline
& 45.69 & 38.38 & 2018 & 3 & 4 & 2.6 & 6 & 8 & 16\tabularnewline
& 45.33 & 38.41 & 2018 & 3 & 30 & 2.7 & 4 & 10 & 10\tabularnewline
& 45.40 & 38.41 & 2018 & 4 & 30 & 3.4 & 11 & 5 & 49\tabularnewline
& 45.66 & 38.38 & 2018 & 6 & 19 & 2.6 & 9 & 2 & 56\tabularnewline
& 45.66 & 38.38 & 2018 & 9 & 4 & 2.6 & 6.4 & 1 & 50\tabularnewline
& 45.42 & 38.41 & 2018 & 11 & 21 & 3.3 & 5 & 0 & 42\tabularnewline
& 45.45 & 38.42 & 2018 & 12 & 26 & 3.5 & 5 & 7 & 41\tabularnewline
& 45.33 & 38.42 & 2019 & 4 & 11 & 2.7 & 10 & 9 & 14\tabularnewline
& 45.33 & 38.42 & 2019 & 4 & 12 & 3.4 & 6 & 0 & 16\tabularnewline
& 45.35 & 38.43 & 2019 & 4 & 12 & 3.8 & 6 & 4 & 12\tabularnewline
& 45.33 & 38.43 & 2019 & 4 & 12 & 2.7 & 6 & 6 & 14\tabularnewline
& 45.39 & 38.40 & 2019 & 6 & 8 & 2.8 & 6 & 0 & 54\tabularnewline
& 45.44 & 38.39 & 2019 & 6 & 8 & 2.5 & 6 & 1 & 0\tabularnewline
& 45.44 & 38.43 & 2019 & 6 & 9 & 2.8 & 4.9 & 4 & 14\tabularnewline
SBF & 47.47 & 37.67 & 2013 & 1 & 15 & 2.7 & 13.1 & 5 & 31\tabularnewline
& 47.42 & 37.71 & 2015 & 12 & 28 & 3.5 & 9 & 10 & 3\tabularnewline
& 47.44 & 37.71 & 2019 & 4 & 15 & 2.7 & 6.8 & 6 & 22\tabularnewline
\bottomrule
\end{longtable}

\selectlanguage{english}
\FloatBarrier
\end{document}

