Fig. 5. Observed (black) and simulated (colored) Sahelian precipitation anomalies, forced with observed SST alone (a, amip-piF, orange) and with observed SST and all external forcing agents (b, amip-hist, dark green). The shaded areas denote the bootstrapping confidence intervals about the simulated MMMs. Panel (a) additionally displays observed NARI (light blue, right ordinates). The right ordinates for panel (a) are scaled by the inverse of the simulated amip-piF teleconnection strength (see Section 4.c) so that when read on the left ordinates, NARI represents its predicted impact on precipitation. Panel (c) compares observed precipitation (left ordinates) to the implied simulated fast component in AMIP simulations (amip-hist – amip-piF, purple, right ordinates). As in Figure 2, panel (c) denotes hemispherically asymmetric volcanic eruptions, where the sign denotes the sign of the expected Sahelian precipitation response to the eruption.